12.13.2010

Predicted vs Actual Results

Since we spent time carefully allocating our $260 budgets to players I thought it would be interesting to look at what those players turned out to be worth based on their actual values season-end performance. A review of the value of all drafted players is available at http://tinyurl.com/25ps35n.

BP does not provide this information as far as I am aware, so these values are based on my own model. However, it should be pretty close as my methodology is very similar to that which BP uses at the beginning of the season. One thing to keep in mind is that ten teams with budgets of $260 each lead to a total potential value of all starting rosters of $2,600. However, there is significant entropy in the system. For example, if you keep Player A who is worth $10 on your bench, but you start Player B who is worth -$10 for an entire season, then the entire league has lost $20 of value. This is reflected on roster values that are all below $260 -- it is very difficult to retain that much value given that some players have negative prices AND there are undrafted players with positive value.

In an upcoming post, I will take a look at the most valuable and biggest busts of the year. I will also take a look at the undrafted players who turned out to have a significant value. Stay tuned.

2 comments:

Dave said...

Very interesting. It is not shocking to me that my team did not win the league this year on the value provided from the players on my team coming out of the auction. I am a little surprised to see in such stark relief the lack of value I got out of certain guys like Soto and my dearly departed Stephen Strasburg.

Rich said...

So I guess this means Dan and Jimmy won the draft, which means they need to work on their roster pickups. I made out okay as well, but I only had one inspired pick - Carlos Gonzalez. I can't believe Alexie Ramirez was worth that much, seemed pretty crappy to me. I was adding and dropping him all season.