3.30.2008

2008 Standings Prediction

Using the most recent Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections, I took a look at who profiles as the "winner" of the auction. This assumes: (1) everyone is stuck with their Opening Day roster from the auction; and (2) BP's projections are deadly accurate. Since our lives are not our own, you can consider this to be your undeniable destiny.

These are just the summary results due to the lack of horizontal space on this Blog. A full list of standings by category will be posted in a workbook in the Google spreadsheet.

Team Total

TINSTAAP 74
PECOTA Monkeys 68
Makyuu no Shoutai 67
Replacement Levelers 64
Boston Doodles 62
Maniacal Mets 51
Smooth Segues 47
LeetSauceII 44
Donkeys 41
Norcal Peaceniks 32

2008 Auction Results

Mike, Peaceniks
Victor Martinez $27.00
Ryan Howard $18.00
Placido Polanco $7.00
Michael Young $14.00
Miguel Cabrera $33.00
Vernon Wells $14.00
Shane Victorino $9.00
Alex Rios $19.00
Bobby Abreu $16.00
Delmon Young $8.00
Chone Figgins $19.00
Edgar Renteria $6.00
Paul Konerko $13.00
J.J. Putz $10.00
John Maine $10.00
Brad Penny $7.00
Takashi Saito $4.00
Joe Blanton $3.00
Ian Snell $11.00

James, LeetSauceII
Kenji Johjima $3.00
Mark Teixeira $30.00
Aaron Hill $3.00
Carlos Guillén $15.00
Garrett Atkins $20.00
Ichiro Suzuki $24.00
Eric Byrnes $15.00
Carlos Lee $27.00
Raul Ibanez $4.00
Torii Hunter $10.00
Adrian Beltre $6.00
Jose Guillen $1.00
Aaron Rowand $5.00
Aaron Harang $18.00
Jonathan Papelbon $9.00
Joe Nathan $7.00
Dan Haren $23.00
Billy Wagner $4.00
Matt Cain $12.00
Tim Hudson $6.00
Jeff Francis $2.00
Bronson Arroyo $1.00
Ramon Hernandez $1.00
Mark Buerhle $1.00
Jason Isringhauesen $1.00

Vadim, Donkeys
J.R. Towles $5.00
Albert Pujols $34.00
Robinson Cano $10.00
Troy Tulowitzki $15.00
Mike Lowell $5.00
Carl Crawford $29.00
Brad Hawpe $15.00
Willy Taveras $1.00
Michael Cuddyer $4.00
Luke Scott $1.00
Justin Morneau $15.00
Jimmy Rollins $30.00
Stephen Drew $2.00
Chris Young $15.00
Dontrelle Willis $3.00
Roy Halladay $16.00
Justin Verlander $21.00
John Lackey $16.00
Kelvim Escobar $4.00
Jose Valverde $2.00
Rafael Betancourt $4.00
Oliver Perez $3.00
Jon Garland $1.00
Greg Maddux $1.00
Melky Cabrera $1.00

Justin, Makyuu no Shoutai
Jorge Posada $11.00
David Ortiz $33.00
Kelly Johnson $10.00
Julio Lugo $2.00
Ryan Zimmerman $14.00
Josh Willingham $15.00
Jermaine Dye $13.00
Andruw Jones $14.00
Rick Ankiel $4.00
Billy Butler $10.00
Prince Fielder $15.00
Asdrubal Cabrera $1.00
Larry "Chipper" Jones $17.00
Josh Beckett $15.00
Zack Greinke $5.00
Francisco Liriano $12.00
Adam Wainwright $7.00
A.J. Burnett $11.00
Philip Hughes $8.00
Derek Lowe $4.00
Ted Lilly $4.00
Mike Pelfrey $1.00
Jeremy Bonderman $10.00
Matt Garza $3.00
Justin Upton $11.00

Dave, PECOTA Monkeys
Russell Martin $15.00
Carlos Pena $24.00
Chase Utley $24.00
Rafael Furcal $13.00
Edwin Encarnacion $5.00
Corey Hart $20.00
Nick Swisher $23.00
Lastings Milledge $5.00
Kosuke Fukudome $7.00
Matt Kemp $11.00
Todd Helton $15.00
Brian Roberts $17.00
Jim Thome $8.00
Daisuke Matsuzaka $21.00
Rich Harden $9.00
Joakim Soria $2.00
Rafael Soriano $3.00
Javier Vazquez $15.00
Huston Street $3.00
Clay Buchholz $11.00
Hideki Okajima $3.00
Octavio Dotel $1.00
B.J. Ryan $1.00
Bob Howry $1.00
Joey Votto $3.00

Matt, TINSTAAP
Kurt Suzuki $1.00
Derrek Lee $24.00
Dustin Pedroia $8.00
Jhonny Peralta $1.00
Ryan Braun $15.00
Adam Dunn $18.00
Jacoby Ellsbury $15.00
Hideki Matsui $9.00
Jeremy Hermida $7.00
Adam Jones $12.00
Adrian Gonzalez $14.00
J.J. Hardy $1.00
Ryan Church $1.00
Johan Santana $33.00
Scott Kazmir $24.00
Felix Hernandez $19.00
Francisco Rodriguez $5.00
Joba Chamberlain $10.00
Jonathan Broxton $5.00
Brett Myers $14.00
Yovani Galladro $13.00
Tom Gorzelanny $4.00
Daric Barton $4.00
Travis Buck $1.00
Joel Zumaya $2.00

Jeff, Smooth Segues
Brian McCann $13.00
James Loney $8.00
Dan Uggla $11.00
Hanley Ramirez $15.00
Ty Wigginton $1.00
J.D. Drew $6.00
Gary Sheffield $10.00
Magglio Ordonez $19.00
Curtis Granderson $10.00
Jack Cust $7.00
Travis Hafner $22.00
Miguel Tejada $9.00
Nick Johnson $5.00
Fausto Carmona $15.00
Roy Oswalt $24.00
Brandon Webb $35.00
Jered Weaver $9.00
Micah Owings $2.00
Chad Billingsley $11.00
Rafael Perez $2.00
Kerry Wood $1.00
Aaron Heilman $1.00
Hunter Pence $16.00
Ryan Garko $6.00
Manny Parra $1.00

Brandon, Maniacal Mets
Joe Mauer $14.00
Lance Berkman $25.00
Jeff Kent $3.00
Derek Jeter $20.00
Alex Rodriguez $33.00
Alfonso Soriano $29.00
Manny Ramirez $24.00
Ken Griffey, Jr. $6.00
Johnny Damon $7.00
Juan Pierre $5.00
Troy Glaus $3.00
Orlando Cabrera $5.00
Carlos Delgado $3.00
Jake Peavy $24.00
Erik Bedard $15.00
Carlos Zambrano $20.00
Chien-Ming Wang $7.00
Francisco Cordero $2.00
Andy Pettitte $3.00
Mariano Rivera $4.00
Carlos Marmol $1.00
Jeremy Guthrie $1.00
Ivan Rodriguez $1.00
Yuniel Escobar $1.00
Ian Kennedy $4.00

Ryan, Boston Doodles
Geovany Soto $9.00
Connor Jackson $4.00
Howie Kendrick $2.00
B.J. Upton $15.00
David Wright $24.00
Matt Holliday $18.00
Vladimir Guerrero $31.00
Chris B. Young $23.00
Josh Hamilton $7.00
Milton Bradley $1.00
Kevin Youkilis $4.00
Erick Aybar $1.00
Felix Pie $4.00
John Smoltz $18.00
Rich Hill $15.00
Heath Bell $3.00
C.C. Sabathia $28.00
Tim Linecum $15.00
Pat Neshek $3.00
Cole Hamels $25.00
Justin Speier $1.00
Mike Hampton $1.00
Hank Blalock $4.00
Jay Bruce $2.00
Brian Fuentes $2.00

Rich, Replacement Levelers
Jason Varitek $1.00
Adam Laroche $3.00
Brandon Phillips $15.00
Jose Reyes $15.00
Aramis Ramirez $18.00
Nick Markakis $15.00
Grady Sizemore $34.00
Carlos Beltran $28.00
Jeff Francoeur $9.00
Pat Burrell $16.00
Alex Gordon $11.00
Ricky Weeks $12.00
Ian Kinsler $14.00
Ben Sheets $12.00
Bobby Jenks $2.00
Jamie Shields $16.00
Dustin McGowan $10.00
Matt Capps $2.00
Pedro Martinez $15.00
Brad Lidge $1.00
Randy Johnson $4.00
Cla Meredith $1.00
Jason Bay $10.00
Evan Longoria $2.00
Mark Prior $3.00

3.16.2008

2008 Keepers

Rich(Replacement Levelers): Ortiz $33, Beckett $15, Markakis $15, Phillips $15
Ryan(Boston Doodles): Holliday $18, Wright $24 (YPIA), Smoltz $18, B.J. Upton $15
Brandon(Maniacal Mets): Soriano $29, A. Rodriguez $33, Bedard $15, Peavy $24
Jeff(Smooth Segues): H. Ramirez $15 (YPIA), Carmona $15, Oswalt $24, Webb $35
Matt(TINSTAAP): Santana $33, Dunn $18, Braun $15, Ellsbury $15
Dave(PECOTA Monkeys): Utley $24, Hart $20 (YPIA), Martin $15
Justin(Maykuu no Shoutai) : Fielder $15 (YPIA), Reyes $15 (YPIA), Willingham $15
Vadim(donkeys): Tulowitzki $15, (SP) Young $15, Crawford $29, Hawpe $15
James(LeetSauceII): Suzuki $24, C. Guillen $15, Harang $18, Byrnes $15
Mike(Norcal Peaceniks): V. Martinez $27, Cabrera $33, Howard $18

3.04.2008

2008 Minor League Draft

1. Mike - Rick Porcello, P
2. James - Clayton Kershaw, P
3. Vadim - Travis Snider, OF
4. Justin - Nick Adenhart, P
5. Dave - David Price, P
6. Matt - Wade Davis, P
7. Jeff - Jacob McGee, P
8. Brandon - Fernando Martinez, OF
9. Ryan -Matt Wieters, C
10. Rich -Mike Moustakas, SS

3.01.2008

Constitution

Article 1 - Definitions
(a) Managers in this league will henceforth be termed Participants.
(b) Players in major league baseball will henceforth be termed players.
(c) The website where this league is played (Yahoo!) will henceforth be termed Host.
(d) The blog where league news is posted (http://bpguineapigs.blogspot.com/) will henceforth be termed Blog.
(e) Any hitter or pitcher who has not yet qualified as a rookie in accordance with MLB rules (e.g. a hitter who has not had 130 ABs or a pitcher who has not pitched 50 IP in any one major league season) will henceforth be termed a minor league player. See http://www.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/ about_mlb/rules_regulations.jsp.

Article 2 - General Rules
(a) Roster - Participants begin with 26 roster slots that must be filled as follows: 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 5 OF, 1 CI, 1 MI, 1 UTIL, 9 P, 3 BENCH - any position, 1 BENCH - limited purpose, see Article 6(c). Once the season begins, a DL slot may be filled by an injured player as made eligible by the Host.
(b) Scoring - Scoring categories are as follows: R, RBI, HR, SB, OBP, W, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB.
(c) Innings Pitched Limit - IP limit is 1500.
(d) Free Agency - All Participants start the year with a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) and all players not drafted start the year as a Free Agent (FA).
(e) Entry Fee- Participants must pay an entry fee of $25 to the Commissioner, due on March 1. If entry fee is not received by March 1, the Commissioner may find a replacement Participant.
(f) Prizes - Prizes are as follows: 1st Place - $150; 2nd Place - $75; 3rd Place - $25. In the event of a tie, for all purposes the tiebreaker will be the order the teams are listed on the Host.
(g) Roster Freeze - Rosters are frozen on the last day of the regular season until draft results are posted. Trades may be allowed in the off-season at the discretion of the Commissioner.
(h) Incorporation - These rules are not exhaustive. Additional applicable rules and interpretative material may be found at the Host, the Blog, and elsewhere.

Article 3 - Auction Process
(a) Draft Budget - Generally, the budget for the draft is $260. Keeper costs are subtracted from this total before the start of the draft. A Participant may include draft money in trades.
(b) Draft Nomination Order - The Participant who finished in 10th Place the previous season nominates the first player, followed by other Participants in snaking order.
(c) Draft Bidding - A Participant who nominates a player makes the initial bid on that player, which shall be not below $1. A Participant may not nominate a keeper. Another Participant may bid a higher dollar amount in whole dollars. Once a Participant fills his roster with players, he is ineligible for subsequent nomination of or bidding on players.Tying bids are not permitted. At no time may a Participant bid more money than would be necessary to fill out all remaining empty roster spots on his team with $1 players.
(d) Draft Bidding Closure - The Commissioner will give two warnings when the bidding slows down that bidding is about to conclude. Then, the Commissioner will call an end to the bidding. The Participant with the highest final bid wins the player, which constitutes the player's auction cost, which shall be subtracted from his budget. No bids will be accepted after the Commissioner concludes the bidding. The Commissioner's post regarding auction cost on the Blog shall be authoritative.
(e) Draft Remedies - In the event that a Participant bids an amount exceeding his budget according to subsection (c) of this article, this bid will be disallowed at the time it is made. In the event that bidding has already closed on that player, bidding shall be reopened at the last acceptable bid.
(f) FA Budget -All Participants start the season with a $100 FAAB.
(g) FA Bidding - A Participant must initiate the bidding process on a FA by adding the FA and making a post on the Host message board with the player's name as the subject line. Other Participants will have 48 hours from the required post's time stamp to bid on the FA via that message board. Failure to make the required post will result in the time period being tolled from the time stamp of the first bid on FA. At no time may a Participant bid more money than remains in his FAAB.
(h) FA Bidding Closure - The winning bidder will be awarded the player at the final price which constitutes that player's auction cost which shall be subtracted from his FAAB. If there are no bids on the FA, the cost shall be $0. No bids will be accepted after the Commissioner concludes the bidding. The Commissioner's post regarding auction cost on the Blog shall be authoritative.

Article 4 - Keepers
(a) Keeper Quantity - Each Participant may tag up to 4 players as keepers per year. A Participant may keep a 5th player as a Franchise Player in accordance with Art. 6(f). A Participant may tag as few keepers as desired.
(b) Keeper Cost - The cost to keep a player is a player's auction cost plus inflation. See Art. 3(d), (h), and Art. 6(e). Inflation shall be calculated as 20% of a player's auction cost, rounded up. The minimum cost to keep a player is $15.
(c) Young Player Inflation Adjustment (YPIA) - A Participant may apply the YPIA tag to a player whose age is less than or equal to 26 on opening day of the current season, thus avoiding inflation for that season. In the following season, standard inflation applies. Once the YPIA tag is applied to a player, no Participant may apply the tag to that player again.
(d) Keeper Notice - The deadline for submitting keepers will be posted on the Blog. Submissions made after the deadline will be accepted solely at the Commissioner's discretion. All finalized submissions must be emailed to the Commissioner with the subject line - (Team Name) Keepers. Those emails will remain unopened until the deadline date, at which point all finalized keepers will be posted on the Blog. When a Participant submits his keepers to the Commissioner, Participant must provide a good faith valuation of the keeper. If any circumstances apply besides the general rule regarding inflation, the Participant must justify a deviation from the general rule in this email. The Commissioner's post regarding keeper cost on the Blog shall be authoritative.
(e) Catastrophe Allowance - In the event that a keeper becomes significantly injured or otherwise unavailable in the time between the deadline for keeper selection and the start of the draft, a Participant may name a replacement keeper provided that the replacement has been submitted to the Commissioner prior to the start of the draft. The Commissioner reserves the right to review all replacement requests and will determine whether or not a replacement is allowable and warranted under this rule.

Article 5 - Commissioner's Powers
(a) Rule Making Power - The Commissioner shall have the power to make any changes to the rules that he deems fit so long as he gives the league adequate notice.
(b) Trade Review Power - The Commissioner shall have the power to veto any trades consummated during or after the season. The Commissioner shall exercise his veto only if the trade is grossly unbalanced.
(c) Remedial Power - The Commissioner shall have the power to impose sanctions on Participants that violate any rules or correct any injustices.
(d) Advice & Consent - Before exercising rule, veto, or remedial power, the Commissioner shall attempt to obtain the advice and consent of an executive committee consisting of at least two other Participants.
(e) Referenda - In regard to any of the aforementioned executive actions, any Participant may call for a yes or no vote on these actions to be conducted by the Commissioner. 5 votes are required to strike the Commissioner's actions.

Article 6 - Minor Leagues
(a) Minor Leagues - Each Participant has a Minor League. To be eligible for placement in a Minor League, a player must have been selected in a Minor League Draft and must qualify as a minor league player. Players kept in the Minor Leagues do not count towards the keeper limit. At no time may a Participant have more than three players in his Minor League. The Commissioner's post regarding the composition of the Minor Leagues on the Blog shall be authoritative.
(b) Minor League Draft - Prior to the start of the season, the Commissioner shall announce the commencement of a one round Minor League Draft. All players that have neither been entered in the Host's system nor kept are eligible for this draft. The Participant that finished in 10th Place the preceding season shall have top pick, followed by other Participants in sequential order. Each Participant shall have one calendar day to make his pick known via an e-mail addressed to all Participants. In the event that a Participant does not make his pick in his alloted time, his turn shall be skipped. That Participant may make a pick at any time afterwards, but shall forfeit his pick if not made by midnight draft day. The Participant's draft pick shall be added to his Minor Leagues.
(c) Minor League Bench Slot - In connection with the passage of this article, the Constitution shall be amended to include an additional roster slot consisting of a bench slot. Only a player in a Participant's Minor League is eligible to fill this roster slot. At all times, the 4th bench slot must either: (1) remain empty; (2) fill the slot with a player in his Minor League; or, (3) fill the slot with a major league player and fill an active slot with a player from his Minor League. In the event that a Participant uses this bench slot for any other purpose, the Commissioner shall impose an appropriate sanction.
(d) Minor League Transactions- A Participant may lose exclusive rights to a minor league player in three ways: (1) the minor league player is added to the Host's player universe and is not added to the Participant's roster at or before 15 days; (2) a Participant notifies the Commissioner prior to the Minor League Draft of his desire to release a player currently in his Minor League in order to free up a spot that will be filled at the upcoming draft; or, (3) a trade. In the event that a Participant picks up a minor league player that another Participant has exclusive rights to, the Commissioner shall nullify the transaction.
(e) Player Cost - Players in a Participant's Minor League cost $0. In the year that follows a player losing eligibility for a Participant's Minor League, a Participant may keep this player at a cost of $5. In subsequent years, normal keeper rules apply except as noted in this article.
(f) Franchise Player - In the year immediately following a player losing eligibility for a Participant's Minor League that particular Participant may tag that player as a "Franchise Player". A Franchise Player may be kept as a fifth keeper as long as this tag has not expired. This tag may only be applied to one player on a Participant's team. This tag expires when applied to another player or when that player is dropped, traded, or not kept. If a Participant declines to apply the Franchise Player tag to a player when he becomes eligible, the tag may not be applied in subsequent years, although that player may be kept according to normal keeper rules.
(g) Effect on YPIA - A Participant may not apply the YPIA tag to a player whose cost is below the normal minimum keeper cost, set at $15.

History:
2007: OBP replaced AVG and K/BB replaced SAVES; 1500 IP instead of 1600 IP.
2008: Special rule for 2007 draft stricken; Added Article 6 - Minor Leagues; 20% inflation instead of $3; FAAB rules.