2010 Auction Winners & Losers (Part 1)

Now that the projections are out, I took a look at the prices paid for each player compared to the value assigned based on BP projections. The following analysis uses pricing from BP's website combined with the inflation data from our keepers. The results suggest what each player would be worth if PECOTA projections are 100% accurate.

First, let's look at the biggest individual player values:

Winners
Dan Haren ($25.00 auction; $51.96 projected) = $26.96 value
Hanley Ramirez ($22.00 auction; $48.65 projected) = $26.65 value
Tim Lincecum ($18.00 auction; $38.17 projected) = $20.17 value

The big surprise is not that two keepers have huge value, but the idea that the biggest value is a pure auction candidate in Dan Haren on TINSTAAPP. BP projects 16 wins and 200 Ks across 215 innings without giving up many walks. All of that seems possible, but the problem is that it projects far less for major workhorse stars such as CC Sabathia (14 wins, 175 Ks, 199 innings). That seems to be a suggestion that Haren is highly consistent and less likely to get injured. However, if we look at year-end, I suspect his value will be a bit lower since he qualifies as the BP Cy Young Award winner in a universe where the stats of all pitchers are below that achieved in 2009. There are probably a dozen pitchers who can obtain 16 wins and 200 Ks with good rate stats. Haren seems like a good bet, but not necessarily one that is going to earn a huge premium.

And now for the most over-valued acquisition.

Losers
Willie Bloomquist ($1.00 auction; -$37.04 projected) = -$38.04 value
Felipe Lopez ($1.00 auction; -$25.61 projected) = -$26.61 value
Freddy Sanchez ($5.00 auction; -$18.21 projected) = -$18.21

None of the over-valued players stand out since two are $1 acquisitions who are the equivalent of a waiver-wire pick-up that no one wants. The exception is Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez was an all-star in 2009, but he lacks any tools. A weak lineup in Pittsburgh is likely to suppress his runs and RBI, but Sanchez does not hit for power or steal bases either. In fact, he barely gets on base at all with an OBP under .335 for his career. The killer is that he plays in most games, which slowly erodes team OBP. Therefore, TINSTAAPP gets the JJ Putz award for worst use of an auction budget.

In another post, I'll take a look at the aggregate BP projected value of team rosters. To give you a preview, there is a swing of over $100 between the highest valued roster and the least valuable roster.

2009 Auction Results

(unsorted)

Albert Pujols $45 Handbalman
Mark Teixeira This player is a keeper. $42 Los Del Alex Rios
Miguel Cabrera $40 Sheer Ambivalence
David Wright $36 Minaya's Last Stand
Chase Utley This player is a keeper. $35 PECOTA Monkeys
Grady Sizemore $33 Maniacal Mets
CC Sabathia $30 Boston Doodles
Álex Rodríguez This player is a keeper. $28 Replacement Levelers
Josh Johnson $28 Maniacal Mets
Joey Votto $27 PECOTA Monkeys
Matt Holliday This player is a keeper. $27 Handbalman
Ryan Howard This player is a keeper. $27 Sheer Ambivalence
Ryan Zimmerman $26 TINSTAAPP
Brian Roberts This player is a keeper. $26 Minaya's Last Stand
B.J. Upton $26 Minaya's Last Stand
Kevin Youkilis $25 Sheer Ambivalence
Dan Haren $25 TINSTAAPP
Curtis Granderson $24 Boston Doodles
Félix Hernández This player is a keeper. $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Nick Markakis $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Jason Bay $24 Minaya's Last Stand
Roy Halladay This player is a keeper. $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Jon Lester $23 Replacement Levelers
Johan Santana $23 Maniacal Mets
Jimmy Rollins $23 Replacement Levelers
Adam Dunn $23 PECOTA Monkeys
Víctor Martínez $22 Handbalman
Justin Morneau This player is a keeper. $22 Maniacal Mets
Prince Fielder This player is a keeper. $22 Minaya's Last Stand
Hanley Ramírez This player is a keeper. $22 Boston Doodles
Brandon Phillips This player is a keeper. $21 Maniacal Mets
Nelson Cruz $21 PECOTA Monkeys
Adrián González This player is a keeper. $21 TINSTAAPP
Andrew McCutchen $21 Los Del Alex Rios
Kendry Morales $21 Boston Doodles
Bobby Abreu $21 Handbalman
Chone Figgins $21 Handbalman
Josh Beckett $20 TINSTAAPP
Ichiro Suzuki $20 Long Island Fluke
Shin-Soo Choo $20 Long Island Fluke
Cole Hamels $19 Minaya's Last Stand
Aramis Ramírez $19 Long Island Fluke
Lance Berkman $19 Minaya's Last Stand
Andre Ethier $19 Los Del Alex Rios
Adam Lind $19 PECOTA Monkeys
Carl Crawford This player is a keeper. $18 Replacement Levelers
Ben Zobrist $18 Sheer Ambivalence
José Reyes $18 Minaya's Last Stand
Brian McCann $18 Los Del Alex Rios
Ryan Braun This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Pablo Sandoval $18 Los Del Alex Rios
Dustin Pedroia This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Jacoby Ellsbury This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Nate McLouth $18 TINSTAAPP
Dan Uggla This player is a keeper. $18 Long Island Fluke
Derek Jeter $18 Handbalman
Tim Lincecum This player is a keeper. $18 Boston Doodles
Ian Kinsler This player is a keeper. $18 Replacement Levelers
Derrek Lee $18 Long Island Fluke
Hunter Pence $17 Long Island Fluke
Wandy Rodríguez $17 Handbalman
Matt Cain $17 Los Del Alex Rios
Mark Reynolds $17 Boston Doodles
Joe Mauer This player is a keeper. $17 Maniacal Mets
Carlos Peña $17 Replacement Levelers
Carlos Lee $16 Replacement Levelers
Aaron Hill $16 Handbalman
Torii Hunter $16 TINSTAAPP
Jayson Werth This player is a keeper. $15 Maniacal Mets
Troy Tulowitzki This player is a keeper. $15 Los Del Alex Rios
Yovani Gallardo This player is a keeper. $15 PECOTA Monkeys
Clayton Kershaw $15 Long Island Fluke
Zack Greinke This player is a keeper. $15 Boston Doodles
Cliff Lee This player is a keeper. $15 Long Island Fluke
Justin Verlander This player is a keeper. $15 Sheer Ambivalence
Chris Carpenter This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Javier Vázquez This player is a keeper. $15 Minaya's Last Stand
Manny Ramírez $15 Boston Doodles
Justin Upton This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Evan Longoria This player is a keeper. $15 Replacement Levelers
Matt Kemp This player is a keeper. $15 PECOTA Monkeys
Ubaldo Jiménez $15 Long Island Fluke
Adam Wainwright This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Robinson Canó This player is a keeper. $15 Sheer Ambivalence
Jason Bartlett $15 Long Island Fluke
Max Scherzer $13 PECOTA Monkeys
Ricky Nolasco $13 Replacement Levelers
Shane Victorino $13 Boston Doodles
Ryan Ludwick $13 Sheer Ambivalence
Rickie Weeks $13 PECOTA Monkeys
Russell Martin $13 Long Island Fluke
Billy Butler $13 Boston Doodles
Josh Hamilton $13 Boston Doodles
Raúl Ibañez $13 Long Island Fluke
Michael Bourn $12 Maniacal Mets
Matt Garza $12 Sheer Ambivalence
Brett Anderson $12 Sheer Ambivalence
Nick Swisher $12 TINSTAAPP
Carlos Beltrán $11 Maniacal Mets
Johnny Damon $11 Minaya's Last Stand
John Lackey $11 PECOTA Monkeys
Jake Peavy $11 Replacement Levelers
James Shields $11 TINSTAAPP
A.J. Burnett $10 Replacement Levelers
Marco Scutaro $10 Maniacal Mets
Adam Jones $10 PECOTA Monkeys
Asdrubal Cabrera $10 Maniacal Mets
Jered Weaver $10 Boston Doodles
91. Geovany Soto $9 PECOTA Monkeys
148. Carlos Quentin $9 Replacement Levelers
162. Alfonso Soriano $9 Long Island Fluke
104. Chad Billingsley $9 TINSTAAPP
60. Michael Young $9 Maniacal Mets
84. Denard Span $9 Handbalman
40. Chipper Jones $9 Maniacal Mets
116. Nyjer Morgan $8 Los Del Alex Rios
64. Ian Stewart $8 Long Island Fluke
66. Jair Jurrjens $8 Maniacal Mets
166. Nick Johnson $8 PECOTA Monkeys
120. Jay Bruce $8 Replacement Levelers
92. John Danks $8 Replacement Levelers
178. Scott Kazmir $7 PECOTA Monkeys
41. Carlos Zambrano $7 Maniacal Mets
107. Brad Hawpe $7 Sheer Ambivalence
181. Garrett Jones $7 Los Del Alex Rios
85. Yunel Escobar $7 Long Island Fluke
48. Jorge Posada $7 Sheer Ambivalence
19. Chris Coghlan $7 Boston Doodles
31. J.D. Drew $7 Minaya's Last Stand
100. Elvis Andrus $7 Boston Doodles
106. Michael Cuddyer $6 Long Island Fluke
102. Scott Baker $6 Sheer Ambivalence
54. Ted Lilly $6 Minaya's Last Stand
12. Jonathan Papelbon $6 Sheer Ambivalence
130. Rich Harden $6 PECOTA Monkeys
105. Jason Kubel $6 Sheer Ambivalence
171. Dexter Fowler $6 Boston Doodles
86. Vladimir Guerrero $6 Sheer Ambivalence
95. Ryan Dempster $6 Long Island Fluke
72. Jonathan Broxton $5 Replacement Levelers
34. Mariano Rivera $5 Maniacal Mets
79. José López $5 Sheer Ambivalence
70. Mike Napoli $5 Replacement Levelers
248. Rick Porcello This player is a keeper. $5 Sheer Ambivalence
205. Freddy Sánchez $5 TINSTAAPP
94. David Ortiz $5 Minaya's Last Stand
114. Edwin Jackson $5 Long Island Fluke
172. Todd Helton $5 Maniacal Mets
78. Adam LaRoche $5 Minaya's Last Stand
49. Álex Ríos $5 Minaya's Last Stand
169. Phil Hughes $5 PECOTA Monkeys
242. Gordon Beckham This player is a keeper. $5 Replacement Levelers
51. Mark Buehrle $5 Los Del Alex Rios
234. Tommy Hanson This player is a keeper. $5 Boston Doodles
237. David Price This player is a keeper. $5 PECOTA Monkeys
123. Francisco Liriano $5 Replacement Levelers
150. Joba Chamberlain $5 Sheer Ambivalence
235. Matt Wieters This player is a keeper. $5 Boston Doodles
134. Carlos González $5 Replacement Levelers
170. Kevin Correia $4 Maniacal Mets
101. Randy Wolf $4 Sheer Ambivalence
113. Brandon Webb $4 Sheer Ambivalence
118. Roy Oswalt $4 Sheer Ambivalence
143. Chris Davis $4 Replacement Levelers
144. Corey Hart $4 TINSTAAPP
111. J.A. Happ $4 Long Island Fluke
109. Rajai Davis $4 Maniacal Mets
21. Ervin Santana $4 Minaya's Last Stand
138. Rafael Furcal $4 PECOTA Monkeys
32. Joakim Soria $4 Los Del Alex Rios
153. Alexei Ramírez $3 Replacement Levelers
133. Howie Kendrick $3 Boston Doodles
11. Johnny Cueto $3 Minaya's Last Stand
103. Rafael Soriano $3 Boston Doodles
124. Heath Bell $3 Boston Doodles
131. Daisuke Matsuzaka $3 PECOTA Monkeys
151. Alex Gordon $3 PECOTA Monkeys
163. Billy Wagner $3 Handbalman
160. Travis Snider $3 PECOTA Monkeys
56. Plácido Polanco $3 Sheer Ambivalence
149. Jonathan Sánchez $3 Los Del Alex Rios
90. Jorge Cantú $3 Sheer Ambivalence
112. Julio Borbón $3 Sheer Ambivalence
125. Hideki Matsui $3 Long Island Fluke
139. Everth Cabrera $2 TINSTAAPP
39. Kyle Lohse $2 Minaya's Last Stand
175. Michael Wuertz $2 Boston Doodles
158. Cody Ross $2 PECOTA Monkeys
188. Mat Latos $2 Boston Doodles
128. Joe Blanton $2 Maniacal Mets
152. Adrián Béltre $2 Boston Doodles
196. Aaron Harang $2 TINSTAAPP
117. Justin Duchscherer $2 Sheer Ambivalence
142. Orlando Cabrera $2 Los Del Alex Rios
159. Clay Buchholz $2 Replacement Levelers
122. Gavin Floyd $2 Replacement Levelers
156. Luke Scott $2 Long Island Fluke
190. Mark DeRosa $2 Handbalman
179. Miguel Tejada $2 Handbalman
115. Andrew Bailey $2 Handbalman
161. Nolan Reimold $2 Replacement Levelers
168. Matt Thornton $2 Replacement Levelers
180. Colby Lewis $2 TINSTAAPP
157. Chris Iannetta $2 TINSTAAPP
197. Alfredo Aceves $2 TINSTAAPP
174. Kevin Slowey $2 TINSTAAPP
135. Chan Ho Park $1 Long Island Fluke
164. Ryota Igarashi $1 Long Island Fluke
145. Russell Branyan $1 Long Island Fluke
155. Paul Konerko $1 Long Island Fluke
208. Jhonny Peralta $1 Los Del Alex Rios
210. Clayton Richard $1 Minaya's Last Stand
207. Paul Maholm $1 Minaya's Last Stand
204. Jeff Francoeur $1 Minaya's Last Stand
200. Andy Pettitte $1 Minaya's Last Stand
140. Ryan Theriot $1 TINSTAAPP
182. Frank Francisco $1 TINSTAAPP
195. Colby Rasmus $1 Boston Doodles
198. Matt LaPorta $1 TINSTAAPP
193. Chris Young $1 TINSTAAPP
191. Felipe López $1 Minaya's Last Stand
186. Melky Cabrera $1 Minaya's Last Stand
165. Jack Cust $1 Maniacal Mets
147. Erik Bedard $1 Maniacal Mets
137. Derek Lowe $1 Maniacal Mets
127. Vernon Wells $1 Maniacal Mets
185. Jim Thome $1 Maniacal Mets
121. Justin Masterson $1 PECOTA Monkeys
173. Kurt Suzuki $1 Minaya's Last Stand
176. Jeremy Bonderman $1 PECOTA Monkeys
141. Ben Sheets $1 PECOTA Monkeys
89. Franklin Gutiérrez $1 Los Del Alex Rios
202. Magglio Ordóñez $1 TINSTAAPP
199. Jeff Niemann $1 Handbalman
194. Hiroki Kuroda $1 Handbalman
99. James Loney $1 Los Del Alex Rios
183. Casey Blake $1 Handbalman
203. Juan Rivera $1 Handbalman
206. Carlos Delgado $1 Handbalman
184. Miguel Montero $1 Boston Doodles
211. Huston Street $1 Handbalman
209. Jermaine Dye $1 Handbalman
177. José Valverde $1 Handbalman
189. David DeJesús $1 Handbalman
167. Joel Piñeiro $1 Los Del Alex Rios
119. Alberto Callaspo $1 Los Del Alex Rios
187. Francisco Cordero $1 Los Del Alex Rios
129. Randy Wells $1 Los Del Alex Rios
192. Willie Bloomquist $1 Los Del Alex Rios
201. Josh Willingham $1 Los Del Alex Rios
230. Aroldis Chapman This player is a keeper. $0 Boston Doodles
241. Michael Stanton This player is a keeper. $0 Replacement Levelers
225. Fernando Martinez This player is a keeper. $0 Maniacal Mets
212. Neftali Feliz This player is a keeper. $0 Los Del Alex Rios
247. Jason Heyward This player is a keeper. $0 Sheer Ambivalence
236. Stephen Strasburg This player is a keeper. $0 PECOTA Monkeys
252. Desmond Jennings This player is a keeper. $0 Minaya's Last Stand
220. Wade Davis This player is a keeper. $0 TINSTAAPP
256. Brian Matusz This player is a keeper. $0 Handbalman
217. Jake McGee This player is a keeper. $0 Long Island Fluke

2010 Keepers

Mike: Howard $27, Verlander $15, Cano $15, Porcello $5 (FP)
Dave: Utley $35, Kemp $15 (YPIA), Gallardo $15 (YPIA), Price $5 (FP)
Justin: Fielder $22, Roberts $26, Vazquez $15
Brandon: Mauer $17 (YPIA), Morneau $22, Werth $15, Phillips $21
Paul: Halladay $24, F. Hernandez $24 (YPIA), Tulowitzki $15, Teixeira $42
Ryan: Wieters $5 (FP), Hanson $5, H. Ramirez $22, Lincecum $18, Greinke $15
Dan: Cl. Lee $15, Uggla $18
Matt: Ad. Gonzalez $21, Pedroia $18, Braun $18, Ellsbury $18
Rich: Kinsler $18, Al. Rodriguez $28, Crawford $18, Longoria $15 (YPIA), Beckham $5 (FP)
James: Holliday $27, J. Upton $15, Carpenter $15, Wainwright $15

The BPGPL Minor League System

Below is a list of every player drafted into the BPGPL minor league system. If you spot an error, let me know.

Please note that "PROMOTED" means the season where a $5 price applies, which follows a player's MLB rookie year. Similarly, "KEEPER" means the player is one year further along and costs $15. Once the commissioner notifies me about the status of any dropped players I will update this accordingly. A dropped player is free to be bid upon during the auction.

* TINSTAAPP *
2008 - Wade Davis (P - TB)
2009 - Pedro Alvarez (3B - PIT)
2010 - Carlos Santana (C - CLE)

Team Los Del Rio
2008 - Travis Snider (OF - TOR) (DROPPED)
2009 - Neftali Feliz (P - TEX)
2010 - Dustin Ackley - (2B/OF - SEA)

Makyuu no Shoutai
2008 - Nick Adenhart (P- LAA) (DECEASED)
2009 - Cameron Maybin (OF - FLA) (DROPPED)
2010 - Desmond Jennings (OF - TB)

Red Hook Misdemeanors
2008 - Fernando Martinez (OF - NYM)
2009 - Lars Anderson (1B - BOS)
2010 - Jesus Montero (C - NYY)

Madison Mohels
2008 - Rick Porcello (P - DET) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Jason Heyward (OF - ATL)
2010 - Austin Jackson (OF - DET)

Smooth Segues
2008 - Jacob McGee (P - TB)
2009 - Derek Holland (P - TEX)
2010 - Buster Posey (C - SF)

Replacement Levelers
2008 - Mike Moustakas (SS - KC)
2009 - Gordon Beckham (3B - CHW) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2010 - Mike Stanton (OF - FLA)

Boston Doodles of Cambridge
2008 - Matt Wieters (C - BAL) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Tommy Hanson (P - ATL) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2010 - Aroldis Chapman (P - CIN)

Ong Rising
2008 - Clayton Kershaw (P - LAD) (KEEPER IN 2010)
2009 - Madison Bumgarner (P - SF)
2010 - Brian Matusz (P - BAL)

PECOTA Monkeys
2008 - David Price (P - TB) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Colby Rasmus (OF - STL) (DROPPED)
2010 - Stephen Strasburg (P - WAS) (CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER 2010 - 2023)

2010 Minor League Draft

(1) David - Stephen Strasburg (SP-WAS)
(2) Jimmy - Brian Matusz (SP-BAL)
(3) Ryan - Aroldis Chapman (SP-CIN)
(4) Richard - Mike Stanton (OF-FLA)
(5) Dan - Buster Posey (C-SF)
(6) Mike - Austin Jackson (OF- DET)
(7) Brandon- Jesus Montero (C-NYY)
(8) Justin- Desmond Jennings (OF-TB)
(9) Paul - Dustin Ackley - (2B/OF-SEA)
(10) Matt - Carlos Santana (C-CLE)