2010 Auction Winners & Losers (Part 1)

Now that the projections are out, I took a look at the prices paid for each player compared to the value assigned based on BP projections. The following analysis uses pricing from BP's website combined with the inflation data from our keepers. The results suggest what each player would be worth if PECOTA projections are 100% accurate.

First, let's look at the biggest individual player values:

Winners
Dan Haren ($25.00 auction; $51.96 projected) = $26.96 value
Hanley Ramirez ($22.00 auction; $48.65 projected) = $26.65 value
Tim Lincecum ($18.00 auction; $38.17 projected) = $20.17 value

The big surprise is not that two keepers have huge value, but the idea that the biggest value is a pure auction candidate in Dan Haren on TINSTAAPP. BP projects 16 wins and 200 Ks across 215 innings without giving up many walks. All of that seems possible, but the problem is that it projects far less for major workhorse stars such as CC Sabathia (14 wins, 175 Ks, 199 innings). That seems to be a suggestion that Haren is highly consistent and less likely to get injured. However, if we look at year-end, I suspect his value will be a bit lower since he qualifies as the BP Cy Young Award winner in a universe where the stats of all pitchers are below that achieved in 2009. There are probably a dozen pitchers who can obtain 16 wins and 200 Ks with good rate stats. Haren seems like a good bet, but not necessarily one that is going to earn a huge premium.

And now for the most over-valued acquisition.

Losers
Willie Bloomquist ($1.00 auction; -$37.04 projected) = -$38.04 value
Felipe Lopez ($1.00 auction; -$25.61 projected) = -$26.61 value
Freddy Sanchez ($5.00 auction; -$18.21 projected) = -$18.21

None of the over-valued players stand out since two are $1 acquisitions who are the equivalent of a waiver-wire pick-up that no one wants. The exception is Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez was an all-star in 2009, but he lacks any tools. A weak lineup in Pittsburgh is likely to suppress his runs and RBI, but Sanchez does not hit for power or steal bases either. In fact, he barely gets on base at all with an OBP under .335 for his career. The killer is that he plays in most games, which slowly erodes team OBP. Therefore, TINSTAAPP gets the JJ Putz award for worst use of an auction budget.

In another post, I'll take a look at the aggregate BP projected value of team rosters. To give you a preview, there is a swing of over $100 between the highest valued roster and the least valuable roster.