Dissecting Our Beloved Forecaster: TINSTAAP's Dissapointment

I am posting this in draft form first. I may tighten it up later, depending on my mood.

TINSTAAP was predicted by PECOTA through Justin to finish in first place, yet finished the year in sixth place. As has been noted previously, PECOTA is a propietary tool of BP that I (and other players) use extensively in our pre-draft fantasy baseball rankings. I am interested in figuring out what might have gone wrong with its predictions or Matt's use of those predictions. In this venture, I am going to limit myself to the facts of the auction draft. Also, I am not going to look at PECOTA's actually predictions for the players. In most cases, I am going to assume that Matt's value is an adequate reflection of what PECOTA predicted. In this regard, I present you with my analysis.

WINS
Dustin Pedroia $8.00
Pedroia had a surprisingly good year and Matt made up a lot of value here. A young player with good peripherals that may have made him projectable by PECOTA.
Jhonny Peralta $1.00
Peralta had an average to above average year, and, at the cost of $1, is about all you can hope for. He is young and has been relatively consistent, which may have made him projectable by PECOTA.
J.J. Hardy $1.00
Peralta clone. Similarly, great value pick.
Adrian Gonzalez $14.00
Gonzalez is an underrated youngish player who improved on his performance from last year to become a superstar. He has a solid, consistently improving periphals. This may have been the best money Matt spent all year.
Ryan Church $1.00
Matt was the first on the Church bandwagon and was rewarded with spectacular performance early on, with decreasing returns as the season progressed. This was a good value pick, but I know that holding on to Church through all his dramas this season ended up hurting more than helping my team in another league.
LOSSES
Derrek Lee $24.00
I thought Lee had a much better year than he actually did. 20 HR and 8 SB for a first baseman that you bought for $24 is very disappointing. Lee sunk many a fantasy seasons last year. PECOTA probably predicted a bounce-back to his preceding level of production that was not to be. However, Lee is an older player on the decline, and PECOTA was too optimistic.
Hideki Matsui $9.00
Projectors may have expected Matsui to bounce back from his injuries to his career above average to good performance, but he didn't get there because of those darn injuries. Similar to Lee, he is an older player on the decline.
Jeremy Hermida $7.00
I remember Hermida being up and down all season. PECOTA saw a potential for greatness, but he just wasn't consistent enough to meet the price paid for this year.
Adam Jones $12.00
Younger and sexier than Hermida, what PECOTA didn't know that he wasn't ready either, ergo the disconnect between price paid and projected value. Because he was new and desired, he turned out to be an even bigger disappointment than last year's fad, Hermida.
Scott Kazmir $24.00
Kazmir had an uneven season and was always at the highest a 50-50 shot to earn $24 draft day money. Pitchers are unpredictable. 'Nuff said.
Brett Myers $14.00
Myers may have had $14 of value over the course of the season, but I doubt it was for Matt's team.
Yovani Galladro $13.00
Season (almost) ending injury to a pitcher. Predictable? Possibly. That may have been taken into account in his auction day price already.
WASHES
Kurt Suzuki $1.00
Suzuki had a mediocre to average year for the catcher position, but Matt did not spend much on him.
Felix Hernandez $19.00
At a lower price range than Kazmir, he may have done well enough to earn his value at least.
Tom Gorzelanny $4.00
Upside pick that didn't pay off.
Daric Barton $4.00
Upside pick that didn't pay off.
Travis Buck $1.00
Upside pick that didn't pay off.
Joel Zumaya $2.00
Francisco Rodriguez $5.00
Relievers don't count for much.
Jonathan Broxton $5.00
Relievers don't count for much.
Joba Chamberlain $10.00
Price seems a little high for a reliever, but he did put in a lot of excellent innings as a hybrid pitcher and reliever.

I do see some patterns here with Matt and/or PECOTA from this small sample size, but nothing earth shattering. They do a good job of forecasting young players who have some major league experience. They do a bad job of forecasting declining middle-aging players who have a relatively recent history of success, but a more recent history of suckitude. They don't do well at picking when young players will actually first experience success in the major leagues. And, as I know all too well (and Matt too, see his team's name), they have no idea what pitchers are going to do well and what pitchers are going to suck.

Our Dearly Beloved Porkins

I've added some functionality to Porkins in our Pantheon of Champions. Namely, this video will now come up forevermore when clicking on his image (or at least until whoever put the video up on youtube removes it).

The Art of Replacement Leveling

Now that the season is over, I think it is safe to say that my team, the Replacement Levelers, are a dominant force in this league. In this post, I have looked at my roster in the hopes of finding the "Secret Sauce", the key to my team's success for pedagogical purposes.

I find it difficult to point to any individual player who won the title for me this year. Sure, my team had some draft-day sleepers that came up huge for me, like Jason Bay and Evan Longoria. Good free agent pickups also played a huge role in building my pitching staff. But, my team had even bigger draft-day busts, like Pedro Martinez, Dustin McGowan, Ricky Weeks, Alex Gordon, and Jeff Francoeur. Coming out of the draft, this team was only predicted to finish in fourth place. If one of my competitors had planned to defeat me by buying the players that I was after, they might just have ended up overloading on these disappointments.

So what is the "Secret Sauce" for the Replacement Levelers? Well, I believe that replacement leveling as a philosophy is an important part of that sauce. Replacement leveling means treating every player as a fungible commodity. (For the original source of replacement leveling philosophy, see baseballprospecutus.com) My personal mascot (or Jesus) for this philosophy is Jermaine Dye. He was unexpectedly great in my team's first year. In my team's second year, I didn't really consider drafting him, and he unexpectedly flopped. I haven't checked his stats, but I think he was serviceable again this year. Because of Dye's limited skill set, he is erratic, and, therefore, totally replaceable. When I hear his name mentioned in a draft room I sigh and look the other way. While I think Dye is a good example of a replacement level player, I believe that every player is, to a certain extent, replaceable.

Let me go into a little more detail. During an auction draft, as the price goes up for a player, he becomes more replaceable. This statement will come as no surprise, but it does go against many people's basic instincts. I know how tempting it is to keeping bidding on a player in order to a win. But, the higher the price goes, the more likely you will end up with a bust. Instead, your draft day goal should be to acquire as many players as you can with the highest probability for greatness for the lowest price, all the while understanding that these players are replaceable. This is why many managers fall in love with five tool players - because they have the broadest skill set, and therefore the highest ceiling. However, it is also dangerous to fall in love with five tool players, because they also may fall into what I shall call the Damon trap - they may be okay at everything, but if they lose any skills, it is only a small step to being bad at everything.

After the draft, replacement leveling becomes even more important. Once the season starts, your predictions for greatness either increase or subside. Also, you must make these calculations regarding new players that you didn't even think had a shot at greatness. These calculations I am talking about require math and hunches and are beyond the scope of this post.

Blog Changes

I have just been fiddling with the blog and adding some more content that can be reached via the links on the left. I added a team page that should put all the essential information regarding each team in one place. Check it out and let me know what you think. Of course, someone who knows html could probably make this blog look a lot better, but I guess they have jobs (at least until they reach level 70!)

While I am tempted to fiddle with the rules, I am not sure that any substantive changes we could make to the constitution would be an improvement. The league is pretty much what I envisioned right now. If anyone else wants to fiddle, feel free to post proposals here.

TINSTAAP's Key Players

MANAGER: Matt

RECORD:
2008: 6th
2007: 5th
2006: 6th

MAJORS:
SP Santana
OF Dunn
3B Braun
OF Ellsbury

MINORS:
SP Davis

Smooth Segues' Key Players

MANAGER: Jeff

RECORD:
2008: 5th
2007: 4th
2006: 3rd

MAJORS:
SS Ramirez
SP Carmona
SP Oswalt
SP Webb

MINORS:
SP McGee

Replacement Levelers' Key Players

MANAGER: Rich

RECORD:
2008: 1st
2007: 1st
2006: 2nd

MAJORS:
OF Markakis
SS Reyes
3B Longoria
2B Kinsler

MINORS:
SS Moustakas
SS G. Beckham

PECOTA Monkeys' Key Players

MANAGER: Dave

RECORD:
2008: 3rd
2007: 6th
2006: 1st

MAJORS:
2B Utley
OF Hart
C Martin
OF Quentin

MINORS:
SP Price

Norcal Peaceniks' Key Players

MANAGER: Mike

RECORD:
2008: 10th
2007: 10th
2006: 8th

MAJORS:
C Martinez
3B Cabrera
1B Howard

MINORS:
SP Porcello

Maykuu No Shoutai's Key Players

MANAGER: Justin
PAST TEAM NAMES: Long Live OBP, 2006

RECORD:
2008: 8th
2007: 7th
2006: 9th

MAJORS:
1B Fielder
OF Willingham
1B Ortiz
SP Beckett

MINORS:
SP Adenhart

Maniacal Met's Key Players

MANAGER: Brandon
PAST MANAGERS: Mike D., 2006
PAST TEAM NAMES: On the Juice, 2006

RECORD:
2008: 4th
2007: 3rd
2006: 4th (tied)

MAJORS:
OF Soriano
3B Rodriguez
SP Bedard
SP Peavy

MINORS:
OF Fernando Martinez

LeetSauceII's Key Players

MANAGER: Jimmy

RECORD:
2008: 7th
2007: 9th
2006: 10th

MAJORS:
OF Suzuki
1B Carlos Guillen
SP Harang
OF Byrnes

MINORS:
SP Kershaw

Team Los Del Rios Key Players

MANAGER: Paul Vitale
PAST MANAGERS: Vadim, 2006-2008

RECORD:
2008: 9th
2007: 8th
2006: 4th (tied)

MAJORS:
SS Tulowitzki
SP Young
OF Crawford
OF Hawpe

MINORS:
OF Snider
P N. Perez

Boston Doodles' Key Players

MANAGER: Ryan
PAST TEAM NAMES: Ugly Coyotes, 2006

RECORD:
2008: 2nd
2007: 2nd
2006: 7th

MAJORS:
OF Holliday
3B Wright
SP Smoltz
OF B.J. Upton

MINORS:
C Wieters

2008 Free Agent Purchases

Maykuu no Shouta: Joey Votto at $5
PECOTA Monkeys: Johnny Cueto at $21
Smooth Segues: Mark Reynolds at $5, Jonathan Sanchez at $1, Rafael Furcal at $1
Replacement Levelers: Max Scherzer at $28, Francisco Liriano at $6

2008 Final Standings

1. Replacement Levelers -------- 88.5
2. Boston Doodles --------------- 74.5
3. PECOTA Monkeys------------ 65.5
4. Maniacal Mets--- ------------- 64
5. Smooth Segues-- -------------63.5
6. TINSTAAP ------------------ 56.5
7. LeetSauceII ------------------ 41
8. Maykuu no Shoutai ---------- 36.5
9. donkeys --------------------- 36
10. Norcal Peaceniks ----------- 24