In looking over my team, I'm deciding whether to keep 3 or 4, and who those should be. I was curious what others think about the wisdom of a non-traditional keeper, such as a closer. I had arguably the top 2 relief pitchers in the game (Joe Nathan and B.J. Ryan).
Nathan: 68.1 IP, 7 W, 36 S, 95 K, 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 5.94 K:BB
Ryan: 72.1 IP, 2 W, 38 S, 86 K, 1.37 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 4.30 K:BB
Aside from a slightly higher ERA (in fewer innings), the edge clearly goes to Nathan. With saves now being irrelevant, is this performance still worthy of a keeper slot? The strikeout total alone approaches that of a mediocre starter and the peripherals are much better than any starter would be likely to have. So the question of the day is does that performance mean more to a team than the numbers posted by a third or fourth-rounder on offense, such as an Adam Dunn?
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3 comments:
Although I haven't run the numbers, I can't imagine that those ratios will be that useful to you given given a closer's total innings pitched is so low. Anyway, you would have to be banking on two seasons in row where your closer didn't have one bad game or get injured.
Yeah, I'd be inclined to agree with that comment. I'd bet that regression to the mean for closers after seasons of the kind that your guys just had is pretty brutal. I'd be especially wary of dumping Dunn, who probably stands to gain more in value from the abolition of AVG in favor of OBP than any other player out there. (His OBP has been no less than .122 points higher than his AVG the last three years.)
In a surpise to no one, there is a profile on Dunn at BP today: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5850
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