After all this discussion about team names, I decided to check my ESPN account. While I was looking at our ESPN league from last year, I started to contemplate what went wrong for my team - why the disappointing finish. I looked at the league trades and discovered that I was involved in all the trades that were completed. Maybe this was the source of my problems. Here is the log:
I send Raul Ibanez, Fausto Carmona for Eric Hinske, Francisco Rodriguez
I send Edgar Renteria for Akinori Otsuka
I send Scott Podsednik, Ambiorix Burgos for Eric Chavez
My general impression is that these trades didn't hurt my team. If anything, they helped my team overall. Is this correct reasoning? Or should I avoid trading like the plague in the future?
Actually, getting Chavez just triggered a bell in my head. Maybe I did poorly because I gave too many at-bats to 3Bs having bad seasons - Chavez and Blalock. I couldn't really control that - what are the odds that two young players like that would be bad all season long? Oh yeah, and I had my first round pick, Derek Lee, out all season. Hey, maybe I did a lot better than I should have done.
Pantheon of Champions
2006, 2010 Champion's Manager: Dave, PECOTA Monkeys
2009 Champion's Manager: Matt, TINSTAAPP
2008, 2007 Champion's Manager: Rich, Replacement Levelers
Eternal Champion: Billy Beane, Oakland A's
Eternal Champion: Jek Porkins, Rebel Alliance
Eternal Champion: Charlie Pace, Driveshaft
Pantheon of Bizzaro Champions
2010 Loser's Manager: Brandon, Maniacal Mets
2009 Loser's Manager: Dave, PECOTA Monkeys
2007, 2008 Loser's Manager: Mike, Norcal Peaceniks
2006 Loser's Manager: James, LeetSauce II
Eternal Loser: Steve Phillips, New York Mets
Eternal Loser: Neil "Frogurt", Random Survivor
Eternal Loser: TK-421. Not at his post, didn't find the droids he was looking for.
3 comments:
Well, certainly the Podsednik/ Burgos for Chavez trade was an excellent move. Even in retrospect when considering that Chavez kind of shit the bed, that's a trade I would make 10 times out of 10. The Ibanez/ Carmona for Hinske/ K-Rod trade was probably a wash overall. You gave up offense (a surprisingly decent year by Ibanez) for saves. The question is, did you need saves? The Renteria for Otsuka trade is another in which you were giving up offense (or at least offensive potential) for saves. On the face, I wouldn't call any of these "bad trades", but aside from the bad luck with Chavez you basically acquired success in one category in exchange for potential in several. I doubt any or all of these were make or break deals, but I always shy away from trading for one stat category unless I'm really weak.
Overall though I think there was just a buzzsaw at the top of the standings. Jeff's offense was off the charts ridiculous, and I was lucky to hang on. I won the league only by being in the 98.7th percentile of all teams.
Oh, and I'm not sure what the numbers say, but I'd be willing to bet that no one has ever won a league after losing a first-round draft choice for essentially the entire season.
Clearly trades weren't your downfall and getting essentially nothing out of Lee was a killer, but I've come to the conclusion that no one thing can cause the decimation of a fantasy team. It always takes some degree of luck to win, and a whole series of small bad luck developments, together with the big bad luck development of Derek Lee, was your downfall.
Looking at my draft, I don't know how I managed to finish as well as I did (an extremely distant 3rd place). I chose Pedro with the first pick of the 2nd round, Big Unit in the 4th round, Marcus Giles in the 5th, Coco Crisp in the 7th, Jim Edmonds in the 8th, and Matt Clement, Foulke and Bobby Crosby in the late teen rounds. That's a large chunk of my draft spent on completely useless players at best and actively negative players at worst. Looking back though, only my Unit and Crisp picks look bad through the lense of what I knew at the time. It was just a series of guys I gambled on with all the gambles coming out the wrong way. As you well know, however, for me it's always been about "upside" so I'll continue drafting crappy players like Crisp and Corey Patterson and have my teams go as far as they can take me.
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