2011 Auction Projected Standings

Hurray for me! I can sheepishly project that Minaya Was Here won the 2011 auction. Since PECTOA is destiny, I took a look at the BP projections (updated March 29, 2011) matched up with the best starting roster possible using the players selected in the auction. The results are displayed by category in a spreadsheet that I will send around to all BPGPL team owners via email. While PECOTA is deadly accurate, this game would hardly be fun if it was just a linear programming exercise. Deviations from the projections, injuries and roster moves will determine the winner of the BPGPL in 2011, but I find it interesting to see who maximized their initial roster according to BP and who went in a different direction entirely.

For most teams, the best available player at a particular position is obvious. However, in a few situations, a bench player may be more helpful in select categories than a presumed starter even if they are worse on the whole. This maximization exercise was a bit rough, but the goal was to get the most possible points in the standings for each team. The problem is that it is iterative. If one team makes changes to maximize HRs, this may drop another team down in that category such that they would be better off switching to a player with slightly more power from the bench, which in turn changes the decision for yet another team. Further, some players are relatively good for their position, but are weak compared to positions that require the ability to hit above all. Thus, the Replacement Levelers corned the market for second baseman, but will find that Denard Span edges out Brian Roberts for the utility spot.

Also note that I added a 10th pitcher into the stats for the few teams who are stocked with relievers who will presumably switch starters in-and-out of the lineup while leaving the relievers in at all times to help rate stats (ERA, WHIP, K/BB). Adding an extra reliever into the mix certainly can have a positive effect if you have an effective starting staff. For TINSTAAPP, the addition of Joe Nathan or Luke Gregerson as the 10th player (assuming starters are benched when not starting) results in 2 to 4 further points, depending on which of those two is considered the "extra" player, based on value added to ERA, WHIP and K/BB. Those stats are mighty sensitive to a mere 5% more innings at enhanced rates given the tight competition.

Loading a roster with only a handful of quality starters and plenty of relievers, though, seems doomed to failure. Long Island Fluke may have something else in mind, but their roster at auction features five relievers for the nine pitching spots. To be sure, Adam Wainwright is an intriguing pick-up since he can immediately be slotted into the DL and a new pitcher put into his spot. However, it is difficult to see how the Fluke will avoid last place in strikeouts and wins unless several more starters are added. Using only a few top starters plus high rate stat relievers might score 30 points across ERA, WHIP and K/BB (although the projections are not quite that favorable here), but it also suggests a loss of 18 points in Wins and Strikeouts, which is a pretty big hole to fill.

Remember, if you don't like these projections, you have an entire season to prove them wrong. Good luck.