Now that the projections are out, I took a look at the prices paid for each player compared to the value assigned based on BP projections. The following analysis uses pricing from BP's website combined with the inflation data from our keepers. The results suggest what each player would be worth if PECOTA projections are 100% accurate.
First, let's look at the biggest individual player values:
Winners
Dan Haren ($25.00 auction; $51.96 projected) = $26.96 value
Hanley Ramirez ($22.00 auction; $48.65 projected) = $26.65 value
Tim Lincecum ($18.00 auction; $38.17 projected) = $20.17 value
The big surprise is not that two keepers have huge value, but the idea that the biggest value is a pure auction candidate in Dan Haren on TINSTAAPP. BP projects 16 wins and 200 Ks across 215 innings without giving up many walks. All of that seems possible, but the problem is that it projects far less for major workhorse stars such as CC Sabathia (14 wins, 175 Ks, 199 innings). That seems to be a suggestion that Haren is highly consistent and less likely to get injured. However, if we look at year-end, I suspect his value will be a bit lower since he qualifies as the BP Cy Young Award winner in a universe where the stats of all pitchers are below that achieved in 2009. There are probably a dozen pitchers who can obtain 16 wins and 200 Ks with good rate stats. Haren seems like a good bet, but not necessarily one that is going to earn a huge premium.
And now for the most over-valued acquisition.
Losers
Willie Bloomquist ($1.00 auction; -$37.04 projected) = -$38.04 value
Felipe Lopez ($1.00 auction; -$25.61 projected) = -$26.61 value
Freddy Sanchez ($5.00 auction; -$18.21 projected) = -$18.21
None of the over-valued players stand out since two are $1 acquisitions who are the equivalent of a waiver-wire pick-up that no one wants. The exception is Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez was an all-star in 2009, but he lacks any tools. A weak lineup in Pittsburgh is likely to suppress his runs and RBI, but Sanchez does not hit for power or steal bases either. In fact, he barely gets on base at all with an OBP under .335 for his career. The killer is that he plays in most games, which slowly erodes team OBP. Therefore, TINSTAAPP gets the JJ Putz award for worst use of an auction budget.
In another post, I'll take a look at the aggregate BP projected value of team rosters. To give you a preview, there is a swing of over $100 between the highest valued roster and the least valuable roster.
3.23.2010
2009 Auction Results
(unsorted)
Albert Pujols $45 Handbalman
Mark Teixeira This player is a keeper. $42 Los Del Alex Rios
Miguel Cabrera $40 Sheer Ambivalence
David Wright $36 Minaya's Last Stand
Chase Utley This player is a keeper. $35 PECOTA Monkeys
Grady Sizemore $33 Maniacal Mets
CC Sabathia $30 Boston Doodles
Álex Rodríguez This player is a keeper. $28 Replacement Levelers
Josh Johnson $28 Maniacal Mets
Joey Votto $27 PECOTA Monkeys
Matt Holliday This player is a keeper. $27 Handbalman
Ryan Howard This player is a keeper. $27 Sheer Ambivalence
Ryan Zimmerman $26 TINSTAAPP
Brian Roberts This player is a keeper. $26 Minaya's Last Stand
B.J. Upton $26 Minaya's Last Stand
Kevin Youkilis $25 Sheer Ambivalence
Dan Haren $25 TINSTAAPP
Curtis Granderson $24 Boston Doodles
Félix Hernández This player is a keeper. $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Nick Markakis $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Jason Bay $24 Minaya's Last Stand
Roy Halladay This player is a keeper. $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Jon Lester $23 Replacement Levelers
Johan Santana $23 Maniacal Mets
Jimmy Rollins $23 Replacement Levelers
Adam Dunn $23 PECOTA Monkeys
Víctor Martínez $22 Handbalman
Justin Morneau This player is a keeper. $22 Maniacal Mets
Prince Fielder This player is a keeper. $22 Minaya's Last Stand
Hanley Ramírez This player is a keeper. $22 Boston Doodles
Brandon Phillips This player is a keeper. $21 Maniacal Mets
Nelson Cruz $21 PECOTA Monkeys
Adrián González This player is a keeper. $21 TINSTAAPP
Andrew McCutchen $21 Los Del Alex Rios
Kendry Morales $21 Boston Doodles
Bobby Abreu $21 Handbalman
Chone Figgins $21 Handbalman
Josh Beckett $20 TINSTAAPP
Ichiro Suzuki $20 Long Island Fluke
Shin-Soo Choo $20 Long Island Fluke
Cole Hamels $19 Minaya's Last Stand
Aramis Ramírez $19 Long Island Fluke
Lance Berkman $19 Minaya's Last Stand
Andre Ethier $19 Los Del Alex Rios
Adam Lind $19 PECOTA Monkeys
Carl Crawford This player is a keeper. $18 Replacement Levelers
Ben Zobrist $18 Sheer Ambivalence
José Reyes $18 Minaya's Last Stand
Brian McCann $18 Los Del Alex Rios
Ryan Braun This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Pablo Sandoval $18 Los Del Alex Rios
Dustin Pedroia This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Jacoby Ellsbury This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Nate McLouth $18 TINSTAAPP
Dan Uggla This player is a keeper. $18 Long Island Fluke
Derek Jeter $18 Handbalman
Tim Lincecum This player is a keeper. $18 Boston Doodles
Ian Kinsler This player is a keeper. $18 Replacement Levelers
Derrek Lee $18 Long Island Fluke
Hunter Pence $17 Long Island Fluke
Wandy Rodríguez $17 Handbalman
Matt Cain $17 Los Del Alex Rios
Mark Reynolds $17 Boston Doodles
Joe Mauer This player is a keeper. $17 Maniacal Mets
Carlos Peña $17 Replacement Levelers
Carlos Lee $16 Replacement Levelers
Aaron Hill $16 Handbalman
Torii Hunter $16 TINSTAAPP
Jayson Werth This player is a keeper. $15 Maniacal Mets
Troy Tulowitzki This player is a keeper. $15 Los Del Alex Rios
Yovani Gallardo This player is a keeper. $15 PECOTA Monkeys
Clayton Kershaw $15 Long Island Fluke
Zack Greinke This player is a keeper. $15 Boston Doodles
Cliff Lee This player is a keeper. $15 Long Island Fluke
Justin Verlander This player is a keeper. $15 Sheer Ambivalence
Chris Carpenter This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Javier Vázquez This player is a keeper. $15 Minaya's Last Stand
Manny Ramírez $15 Boston Doodles
Justin Upton This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Evan Longoria This player is a keeper. $15 Replacement Levelers
Matt Kemp This player is a keeper. $15 PECOTA Monkeys
Ubaldo Jiménez $15 Long Island Fluke
Adam Wainwright This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Robinson Canó This player is a keeper. $15 Sheer Ambivalence
Jason Bartlett $15 Long Island Fluke
Max Scherzer $13 PECOTA Monkeys
Ricky Nolasco $13 Replacement Levelers
Shane Victorino $13 Boston Doodles
Ryan Ludwick $13 Sheer Ambivalence
Rickie Weeks $13 PECOTA Monkeys
Russell Martin $13 Long Island Fluke
Billy Butler $13 Boston Doodles
Josh Hamilton $13 Boston Doodles
Raúl Ibañez $13 Long Island Fluke
Michael Bourn $12 Maniacal Mets
Matt Garza $12 Sheer Ambivalence
Brett Anderson $12 Sheer Ambivalence
Nick Swisher $12 TINSTAAPP
Carlos Beltrán $11 Maniacal Mets
Johnny Damon $11 Minaya's Last Stand
John Lackey $11 PECOTA Monkeys
Jake Peavy $11 Replacement Levelers
James Shields $11 TINSTAAPP
A.J. Burnett $10 Replacement Levelers
Marco Scutaro $10 Maniacal Mets
Adam Jones $10 PECOTA Monkeys
Asdrubal Cabrera $10 Maniacal Mets
Jered Weaver $10 Boston Doodles
91. Geovany Soto $9 PECOTA Monkeys
148. Carlos Quentin $9 Replacement Levelers
162. Alfonso Soriano $9 Long Island Fluke
104. Chad Billingsley $9 TINSTAAPP
60. Michael Young $9 Maniacal Mets
84. Denard Span $9 Handbalman
40. Chipper Jones $9 Maniacal Mets
116. Nyjer Morgan $8 Los Del Alex Rios
64. Ian Stewart $8 Long Island Fluke
66. Jair Jurrjens $8 Maniacal Mets
166. Nick Johnson $8 PECOTA Monkeys
120. Jay Bruce $8 Replacement Levelers
92. John Danks $8 Replacement Levelers
178. Scott Kazmir $7 PECOTA Monkeys
41. Carlos Zambrano $7 Maniacal Mets
107. Brad Hawpe $7 Sheer Ambivalence
181. Garrett Jones $7 Los Del Alex Rios
85. Yunel Escobar $7 Long Island Fluke
48. Jorge Posada $7 Sheer Ambivalence
19. Chris Coghlan $7 Boston Doodles
31. J.D. Drew $7 Minaya's Last Stand
100. Elvis Andrus $7 Boston Doodles
106. Michael Cuddyer $6 Long Island Fluke
102. Scott Baker $6 Sheer Ambivalence
54. Ted Lilly $6 Minaya's Last Stand
12. Jonathan Papelbon $6 Sheer Ambivalence
130. Rich Harden $6 PECOTA Monkeys
105. Jason Kubel $6 Sheer Ambivalence
171. Dexter Fowler $6 Boston Doodles
86. Vladimir Guerrero $6 Sheer Ambivalence
95. Ryan Dempster $6 Long Island Fluke
72. Jonathan Broxton $5 Replacement Levelers
34. Mariano Rivera $5 Maniacal Mets
79. José López $5 Sheer Ambivalence
70. Mike Napoli $5 Replacement Levelers
248. Rick Porcello This player is a keeper. $5 Sheer Ambivalence
205. Freddy Sánchez $5 TINSTAAPP
94. David Ortiz $5 Minaya's Last Stand
114. Edwin Jackson $5 Long Island Fluke
172. Todd Helton $5 Maniacal Mets
78. Adam LaRoche $5 Minaya's Last Stand
49. Álex Ríos $5 Minaya's Last Stand
169. Phil Hughes $5 PECOTA Monkeys
242. Gordon Beckham This player is a keeper. $5 Replacement Levelers
51. Mark Buehrle $5 Los Del Alex Rios
234. Tommy Hanson This player is a keeper. $5 Boston Doodles
237. David Price This player is a keeper. $5 PECOTA Monkeys
123. Francisco Liriano $5 Replacement Levelers
150. Joba Chamberlain $5 Sheer Ambivalence
235. Matt Wieters This player is a keeper. $5 Boston Doodles
134. Carlos González $5 Replacement Levelers
170. Kevin Correia $4 Maniacal Mets
101. Randy Wolf $4 Sheer Ambivalence
113. Brandon Webb $4 Sheer Ambivalence
118. Roy Oswalt $4 Sheer Ambivalence
143. Chris Davis $4 Replacement Levelers
144. Corey Hart $4 TINSTAAPP
111. J.A. Happ $4 Long Island Fluke
109. Rajai Davis $4 Maniacal Mets
21. Ervin Santana $4 Minaya's Last Stand
138. Rafael Furcal $4 PECOTA Monkeys
32. Joakim Soria $4 Los Del Alex Rios
153. Alexei Ramírez $3 Replacement Levelers
133. Howie Kendrick $3 Boston Doodles
11. Johnny Cueto $3 Minaya's Last Stand
103. Rafael Soriano $3 Boston Doodles
124. Heath Bell $3 Boston Doodles
131. Daisuke Matsuzaka $3 PECOTA Monkeys
151. Alex Gordon $3 PECOTA Monkeys
163. Billy Wagner $3 Handbalman
160. Travis Snider $3 PECOTA Monkeys
56. Plácido Polanco $3 Sheer Ambivalence
149. Jonathan Sánchez $3 Los Del Alex Rios
90. Jorge Cantú $3 Sheer Ambivalence
112. Julio Borbón $3 Sheer Ambivalence
125. Hideki Matsui $3 Long Island Fluke
139. Everth Cabrera $2 TINSTAAPP
39. Kyle Lohse $2 Minaya's Last Stand
175. Michael Wuertz $2 Boston Doodles
158. Cody Ross $2 PECOTA Monkeys
188. Mat Latos $2 Boston Doodles
128. Joe Blanton $2 Maniacal Mets
152. Adrián Béltre $2 Boston Doodles
196. Aaron Harang $2 TINSTAAPP
117. Justin Duchscherer $2 Sheer Ambivalence
142. Orlando Cabrera $2 Los Del Alex Rios
159. Clay Buchholz $2 Replacement Levelers
122. Gavin Floyd $2 Replacement Levelers
156. Luke Scott $2 Long Island Fluke
190. Mark DeRosa $2 Handbalman
179. Miguel Tejada $2 Handbalman
115. Andrew Bailey $2 Handbalman
161. Nolan Reimold $2 Replacement Levelers
168. Matt Thornton $2 Replacement Levelers
180. Colby Lewis $2 TINSTAAPP
157. Chris Iannetta $2 TINSTAAPP
197. Alfredo Aceves $2 TINSTAAPP
174. Kevin Slowey $2 TINSTAAPP
135. Chan Ho Park $1 Long Island Fluke
164. Ryota Igarashi $1 Long Island Fluke
145. Russell Branyan $1 Long Island Fluke
155. Paul Konerko $1 Long Island Fluke
208. Jhonny Peralta $1 Los Del Alex Rios
210. Clayton Richard $1 Minaya's Last Stand
207. Paul Maholm $1 Minaya's Last Stand
204. Jeff Francoeur $1 Minaya's Last Stand
200. Andy Pettitte $1 Minaya's Last Stand
140. Ryan Theriot $1 TINSTAAPP
182. Frank Francisco $1 TINSTAAPP
195. Colby Rasmus $1 Boston Doodles
198. Matt LaPorta $1 TINSTAAPP
193. Chris Young $1 TINSTAAPP
191. Felipe López $1 Minaya's Last Stand
186. Melky Cabrera $1 Minaya's Last Stand
165. Jack Cust $1 Maniacal Mets
147. Erik Bedard $1 Maniacal Mets
137. Derek Lowe $1 Maniacal Mets
127. Vernon Wells $1 Maniacal Mets
185. Jim Thome $1 Maniacal Mets
121. Justin Masterson $1 PECOTA Monkeys
173. Kurt Suzuki $1 Minaya's Last Stand
176. Jeremy Bonderman $1 PECOTA Monkeys
141. Ben Sheets $1 PECOTA Monkeys
89. Franklin Gutiérrez $1 Los Del Alex Rios
202. Magglio Ordóñez $1 TINSTAAPP
199. Jeff Niemann $1 Handbalman
194. Hiroki Kuroda $1 Handbalman
99. James Loney $1 Los Del Alex Rios
183. Casey Blake $1 Handbalman
203. Juan Rivera $1 Handbalman
206. Carlos Delgado $1 Handbalman
184. Miguel Montero $1 Boston Doodles
211. Huston Street $1 Handbalman
209. Jermaine Dye $1 Handbalman
177. José Valverde $1 Handbalman
189. David DeJesús $1 Handbalman
167. Joel Piñeiro $1 Los Del Alex Rios
119. Alberto Callaspo $1 Los Del Alex Rios
187. Francisco Cordero $1 Los Del Alex Rios
129. Randy Wells $1 Los Del Alex Rios
192. Willie Bloomquist $1 Los Del Alex Rios
201. Josh Willingham $1 Los Del Alex Rios
230. Aroldis Chapman This player is a keeper. $0 Boston Doodles
241. Michael Stanton This player is a keeper. $0 Replacement Levelers
225. Fernando Martinez This player is a keeper. $0 Maniacal Mets
212. Neftali Feliz This player is a keeper. $0 Los Del Alex Rios
247. Jason Heyward This player is a keeper. $0 Sheer Ambivalence
236. Stephen Strasburg This player is a keeper. $0 PECOTA Monkeys
252. Desmond Jennings This player is a keeper. $0 Minaya's Last Stand
220. Wade Davis This player is a keeper. $0 TINSTAAPP
256. Brian Matusz This player is a keeper. $0 Handbalman
217. Jake McGee This player is a keeper. $0 Long Island Fluke
Albert Pujols $45 Handbalman
Mark Teixeira This player is a keeper. $42 Los Del Alex Rios
Miguel Cabrera $40 Sheer Ambivalence
David Wright $36 Minaya's Last Stand
Chase Utley This player is a keeper. $35 PECOTA Monkeys
Grady Sizemore $33 Maniacal Mets
CC Sabathia $30 Boston Doodles
Álex Rodríguez This player is a keeper. $28 Replacement Levelers
Josh Johnson $28 Maniacal Mets
Joey Votto $27 PECOTA Monkeys
Matt Holliday This player is a keeper. $27 Handbalman
Ryan Howard This player is a keeper. $27 Sheer Ambivalence
Ryan Zimmerman $26 TINSTAAPP
Brian Roberts This player is a keeper. $26 Minaya's Last Stand
B.J. Upton $26 Minaya's Last Stand
Kevin Youkilis $25 Sheer Ambivalence
Dan Haren $25 TINSTAAPP
Curtis Granderson $24 Boston Doodles
Félix Hernández This player is a keeper. $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Nick Markakis $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Jason Bay $24 Minaya's Last Stand
Roy Halladay This player is a keeper. $24 Los Del Alex Rios
Jon Lester $23 Replacement Levelers
Johan Santana $23 Maniacal Mets
Jimmy Rollins $23 Replacement Levelers
Adam Dunn $23 PECOTA Monkeys
Víctor Martínez $22 Handbalman
Justin Morneau This player is a keeper. $22 Maniacal Mets
Prince Fielder This player is a keeper. $22 Minaya's Last Stand
Hanley Ramírez This player is a keeper. $22 Boston Doodles
Brandon Phillips This player is a keeper. $21 Maniacal Mets
Nelson Cruz $21 PECOTA Monkeys
Adrián González This player is a keeper. $21 TINSTAAPP
Andrew McCutchen $21 Los Del Alex Rios
Kendry Morales $21 Boston Doodles
Bobby Abreu $21 Handbalman
Chone Figgins $21 Handbalman
Josh Beckett $20 TINSTAAPP
Ichiro Suzuki $20 Long Island Fluke
Shin-Soo Choo $20 Long Island Fluke
Cole Hamels $19 Minaya's Last Stand
Aramis Ramírez $19 Long Island Fluke
Lance Berkman $19 Minaya's Last Stand
Andre Ethier $19 Los Del Alex Rios
Adam Lind $19 PECOTA Monkeys
Carl Crawford This player is a keeper. $18 Replacement Levelers
Ben Zobrist $18 Sheer Ambivalence
José Reyes $18 Minaya's Last Stand
Brian McCann $18 Los Del Alex Rios
Ryan Braun This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Pablo Sandoval $18 Los Del Alex Rios
Dustin Pedroia This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Jacoby Ellsbury This player is a keeper. $18 TINSTAAPP
Nate McLouth $18 TINSTAAPP
Dan Uggla This player is a keeper. $18 Long Island Fluke
Derek Jeter $18 Handbalman
Tim Lincecum This player is a keeper. $18 Boston Doodles
Ian Kinsler This player is a keeper. $18 Replacement Levelers
Derrek Lee $18 Long Island Fluke
Hunter Pence $17 Long Island Fluke
Wandy Rodríguez $17 Handbalman
Matt Cain $17 Los Del Alex Rios
Mark Reynolds $17 Boston Doodles
Joe Mauer This player is a keeper. $17 Maniacal Mets
Carlos Peña $17 Replacement Levelers
Carlos Lee $16 Replacement Levelers
Aaron Hill $16 Handbalman
Torii Hunter $16 TINSTAAPP
Jayson Werth This player is a keeper. $15 Maniacal Mets
Troy Tulowitzki This player is a keeper. $15 Los Del Alex Rios
Yovani Gallardo This player is a keeper. $15 PECOTA Monkeys
Clayton Kershaw $15 Long Island Fluke
Zack Greinke This player is a keeper. $15 Boston Doodles
Cliff Lee This player is a keeper. $15 Long Island Fluke
Justin Verlander This player is a keeper. $15 Sheer Ambivalence
Chris Carpenter This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Javier Vázquez This player is a keeper. $15 Minaya's Last Stand
Manny Ramírez $15 Boston Doodles
Justin Upton This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Evan Longoria This player is a keeper. $15 Replacement Levelers
Matt Kemp This player is a keeper. $15 PECOTA Monkeys
Ubaldo Jiménez $15 Long Island Fluke
Adam Wainwright This player is a keeper. $15 Handbalman
Robinson Canó This player is a keeper. $15 Sheer Ambivalence
Jason Bartlett $15 Long Island Fluke
Max Scherzer $13 PECOTA Monkeys
Ricky Nolasco $13 Replacement Levelers
Shane Victorino $13 Boston Doodles
Ryan Ludwick $13 Sheer Ambivalence
Rickie Weeks $13 PECOTA Monkeys
Russell Martin $13 Long Island Fluke
Billy Butler $13 Boston Doodles
Josh Hamilton $13 Boston Doodles
Raúl Ibañez $13 Long Island Fluke
Michael Bourn $12 Maniacal Mets
Matt Garza $12 Sheer Ambivalence
Brett Anderson $12 Sheer Ambivalence
Nick Swisher $12 TINSTAAPP
Carlos Beltrán $11 Maniacal Mets
Johnny Damon $11 Minaya's Last Stand
John Lackey $11 PECOTA Monkeys
Jake Peavy $11 Replacement Levelers
James Shields $11 TINSTAAPP
A.J. Burnett $10 Replacement Levelers
Marco Scutaro $10 Maniacal Mets
Adam Jones $10 PECOTA Monkeys
Asdrubal Cabrera $10 Maniacal Mets
Jered Weaver $10 Boston Doodles
91. Geovany Soto $9 PECOTA Monkeys
148. Carlos Quentin $9 Replacement Levelers
162. Alfonso Soriano $9 Long Island Fluke
104. Chad Billingsley $9 TINSTAAPP
60. Michael Young $9 Maniacal Mets
84. Denard Span $9 Handbalman
40. Chipper Jones $9 Maniacal Mets
116. Nyjer Morgan $8 Los Del Alex Rios
64. Ian Stewart $8 Long Island Fluke
66. Jair Jurrjens $8 Maniacal Mets
166. Nick Johnson $8 PECOTA Monkeys
120. Jay Bruce $8 Replacement Levelers
92. John Danks $8 Replacement Levelers
178. Scott Kazmir $7 PECOTA Monkeys
41. Carlos Zambrano $7 Maniacal Mets
107. Brad Hawpe $7 Sheer Ambivalence
181. Garrett Jones $7 Los Del Alex Rios
85. Yunel Escobar $7 Long Island Fluke
48. Jorge Posada $7 Sheer Ambivalence
19. Chris Coghlan $7 Boston Doodles
31. J.D. Drew $7 Minaya's Last Stand
100. Elvis Andrus $7 Boston Doodles
106. Michael Cuddyer $6 Long Island Fluke
102. Scott Baker $6 Sheer Ambivalence
54. Ted Lilly $6 Minaya's Last Stand
12. Jonathan Papelbon $6 Sheer Ambivalence
130. Rich Harden $6 PECOTA Monkeys
105. Jason Kubel $6 Sheer Ambivalence
171. Dexter Fowler $6 Boston Doodles
86. Vladimir Guerrero $6 Sheer Ambivalence
95. Ryan Dempster $6 Long Island Fluke
72. Jonathan Broxton $5 Replacement Levelers
34. Mariano Rivera $5 Maniacal Mets
79. José López $5 Sheer Ambivalence
70. Mike Napoli $5 Replacement Levelers
248. Rick Porcello This player is a keeper. $5 Sheer Ambivalence
205. Freddy Sánchez $5 TINSTAAPP
94. David Ortiz $5 Minaya's Last Stand
114. Edwin Jackson $5 Long Island Fluke
172. Todd Helton $5 Maniacal Mets
78. Adam LaRoche $5 Minaya's Last Stand
49. Álex Ríos $5 Minaya's Last Stand
169. Phil Hughes $5 PECOTA Monkeys
242. Gordon Beckham This player is a keeper. $5 Replacement Levelers
51. Mark Buehrle $5 Los Del Alex Rios
234. Tommy Hanson This player is a keeper. $5 Boston Doodles
237. David Price This player is a keeper. $5 PECOTA Monkeys
123. Francisco Liriano $5 Replacement Levelers
150. Joba Chamberlain $5 Sheer Ambivalence
235. Matt Wieters This player is a keeper. $5 Boston Doodles
134. Carlos González $5 Replacement Levelers
170. Kevin Correia $4 Maniacal Mets
101. Randy Wolf $4 Sheer Ambivalence
113. Brandon Webb $4 Sheer Ambivalence
118. Roy Oswalt $4 Sheer Ambivalence
143. Chris Davis $4 Replacement Levelers
144. Corey Hart $4 TINSTAAPP
111. J.A. Happ $4 Long Island Fluke
109. Rajai Davis $4 Maniacal Mets
21. Ervin Santana $4 Minaya's Last Stand
138. Rafael Furcal $4 PECOTA Monkeys
32. Joakim Soria $4 Los Del Alex Rios
153. Alexei Ramírez $3 Replacement Levelers
133. Howie Kendrick $3 Boston Doodles
11. Johnny Cueto $3 Minaya's Last Stand
103. Rafael Soriano $3 Boston Doodles
124. Heath Bell $3 Boston Doodles
131. Daisuke Matsuzaka $3 PECOTA Monkeys
151. Alex Gordon $3 PECOTA Monkeys
163. Billy Wagner $3 Handbalman
160. Travis Snider $3 PECOTA Monkeys
56. Plácido Polanco $3 Sheer Ambivalence
149. Jonathan Sánchez $3 Los Del Alex Rios
90. Jorge Cantú $3 Sheer Ambivalence
112. Julio Borbón $3 Sheer Ambivalence
125. Hideki Matsui $3 Long Island Fluke
139. Everth Cabrera $2 TINSTAAPP
39. Kyle Lohse $2 Minaya's Last Stand
175. Michael Wuertz $2 Boston Doodles
158. Cody Ross $2 PECOTA Monkeys
188. Mat Latos $2 Boston Doodles
128. Joe Blanton $2 Maniacal Mets
152. Adrián Béltre $2 Boston Doodles
196. Aaron Harang $2 TINSTAAPP
117. Justin Duchscherer $2 Sheer Ambivalence
142. Orlando Cabrera $2 Los Del Alex Rios
159. Clay Buchholz $2 Replacement Levelers
122. Gavin Floyd $2 Replacement Levelers
156. Luke Scott $2 Long Island Fluke
190. Mark DeRosa $2 Handbalman
179. Miguel Tejada $2 Handbalman
115. Andrew Bailey $2 Handbalman
161. Nolan Reimold $2 Replacement Levelers
168. Matt Thornton $2 Replacement Levelers
180. Colby Lewis $2 TINSTAAPP
157. Chris Iannetta $2 TINSTAAPP
197. Alfredo Aceves $2 TINSTAAPP
174. Kevin Slowey $2 TINSTAAPP
135. Chan Ho Park $1 Long Island Fluke
164. Ryota Igarashi $1 Long Island Fluke
145. Russell Branyan $1 Long Island Fluke
155. Paul Konerko $1 Long Island Fluke
208. Jhonny Peralta $1 Los Del Alex Rios
210. Clayton Richard $1 Minaya's Last Stand
207. Paul Maholm $1 Minaya's Last Stand
204. Jeff Francoeur $1 Minaya's Last Stand
200. Andy Pettitte $1 Minaya's Last Stand
140. Ryan Theriot $1 TINSTAAPP
182. Frank Francisco $1 TINSTAAPP
195. Colby Rasmus $1 Boston Doodles
198. Matt LaPorta $1 TINSTAAPP
193. Chris Young $1 TINSTAAPP
191. Felipe López $1 Minaya's Last Stand
186. Melky Cabrera $1 Minaya's Last Stand
165. Jack Cust $1 Maniacal Mets
147. Erik Bedard $1 Maniacal Mets
137. Derek Lowe $1 Maniacal Mets
127. Vernon Wells $1 Maniacal Mets
185. Jim Thome $1 Maniacal Mets
121. Justin Masterson $1 PECOTA Monkeys
173. Kurt Suzuki $1 Minaya's Last Stand
176. Jeremy Bonderman $1 PECOTA Monkeys
141. Ben Sheets $1 PECOTA Monkeys
89. Franklin Gutiérrez $1 Los Del Alex Rios
202. Magglio Ordóñez $1 TINSTAAPP
199. Jeff Niemann $1 Handbalman
194. Hiroki Kuroda $1 Handbalman
99. James Loney $1 Los Del Alex Rios
183. Casey Blake $1 Handbalman
203. Juan Rivera $1 Handbalman
206. Carlos Delgado $1 Handbalman
184. Miguel Montero $1 Boston Doodles
211. Huston Street $1 Handbalman
209. Jermaine Dye $1 Handbalman
177. José Valverde $1 Handbalman
189. David DeJesús $1 Handbalman
167. Joel Piñeiro $1 Los Del Alex Rios
119. Alberto Callaspo $1 Los Del Alex Rios
187. Francisco Cordero $1 Los Del Alex Rios
129. Randy Wells $1 Los Del Alex Rios
192. Willie Bloomquist $1 Los Del Alex Rios
201. Josh Willingham $1 Los Del Alex Rios
230. Aroldis Chapman This player is a keeper. $0 Boston Doodles
241. Michael Stanton This player is a keeper. $0 Replacement Levelers
225. Fernando Martinez This player is a keeper. $0 Maniacal Mets
212. Neftali Feliz This player is a keeper. $0 Los Del Alex Rios
247. Jason Heyward This player is a keeper. $0 Sheer Ambivalence
236. Stephen Strasburg This player is a keeper. $0 PECOTA Monkeys
252. Desmond Jennings This player is a keeper. $0 Minaya's Last Stand
220. Wade Davis This player is a keeper. $0 TINSTAAPP
256. Brian Matusz This player is a keeper. $0 Handbalman
217. Jake McGee This player is a keeper. $0 Long Island Fluke
3.16.2010
2010 Keepers
Mike: Howard $27, Verlander $15, Cano $15, Porcello $5 (FP)
Dave: Utley $35, Kemp $15 (YPIA), Gallardo $15 (YPIA), Price $5 (FP)
Justin: Fielder $22, Roberts $26, Vazquez $15
Brandon: Mauer $17 (YPIA), Morneau $22, Werth $15, Phillips $21
Paul: Halladay $24, F. Hernandez $24 (YPIA), Tulowitzki $15, Teixeira $42
Ryan: Wieters $5 (FP), Hanson $5, H. Ramirez $22, Lincecum $18, Greinke $15
Dan: Cl. Lee $15, Uggla $18
Matt: Ad. Gonzalez $21, Pedroia $18, Braun $18, Ellsbury $18
Rich: Kinsler $18, Al. Rodriguez $28, Crawford $18, Longoria $15 (YPIA), Beckham $5 (FP)
James: Holliday $27, J. Upton $15, Carpenter $15, Wainwright $15
Dave: Utley $35, Kemp $15 (YPIA), Gallardo $15 (YPIA), Price $5 (FP)
Justin: Fielder $22, Roberts $26, Vazquez $15
Brandon: Mauer $17 (YPIA), Morneau $22, Werth $15, Phillips $21
Paul: Halladay $24, F. Hernandez $24 (YPIA), Tulowitzki $15, Teixeira $42
Ryan: Wieters $5 (FP), Hanson $5, H. Ramirez $22, Lincecum $18, Greinke $15
Dan: Cl. Lee $15, Uggla $18
Matt: Ad. Gonzalez $21, Pedroia $18, Braun $18, Ellsbury $18
Rich: Kinsler $18, Al. Rodriguez $28, Crawford $18, Longoria $15 (YPIA), Beckham $5 (FP)
James: Holliday $27, J. Upton $15, Carpenter $15, Wainwright $15
The BPGPL Minor League System
Below is a list of every player drafted into the BPGPL minor league system. If you spot an error, let me know.
Please note that "PROMOTED" means the season where a $5 price applies, which follows a player's MLB rookie year. Similarly, "KEEPER" means the player is one year further along and costs $15. Once the commissioner notifies me about the status of any dropped players I will update this accordingly. A dropped player is free to be bid upon during the auction.
* TINSTAAPP *
2008 - Wade Davis (P - TB)
2009 - Pedro Alvarez (3B - PIT)
2010 - Carlos Santana (C - CLE)
Team Los Del Rio
2008 - Travis Snider (OF - TOR) (DROPPED)
2009 - Neftali Feliz (P - TEX)
2010 - Dustin Ackley - (2B/OF - SEA)
Makyuu no Shoutai
2008 - Nick Adenhart (P- LAA) (DECEASED)
2009 - Cameron Maybin (OF - FLA) (DROPPED)
2010 - Desmond Jennings (OF - TB)
Red Hook Misdemeanors
2008 - Fernando Martinez (OF - NYM)
2009 - Lars Anderson (1B - BOS)
2010 - Jesus Montero (C - NYY)
Madison Mohels
2008 - Rick Porcello (P - DET) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Jason Heyward (OF - ATL)
2010 - Austin Jackson (OF - DET)
Smooth Segues
2008 - Jacob McGee (P - TB)
2009 - Derek Holland (P - TEX)
2010 - Buster Posey (C - SF)
Replacement Levelers
2008 - Mike Moustakas (SS - KC)
2009 - Gordon Beckham (3B - CHW) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2010 - Mike Stanton (OF - FLA)
Boston Doodles of Cambridge
2008 - Matt Wieters (C - BAL) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Tommy Hanson (P - ATL) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2010 - Aroldis Chapman (P - CIN)
Ong Rising
2008 - Clayton Kershaw (P - LAD) (KEEPER IN 2010)
2009 - Madison Bumgarner (P - SF)
2010 - Brian Matusz (P - BAL)
PECOTA Monkeys
2008 - David Price (P - TB) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Colby Rasmus (OF - STL) (DROPPED)
2010 - Stephen Strasburg (P - WAS) (CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER 2010 - 2023)
Please note that "PROMOTED" means the season where a $5 price applies, which follows a player's MLB rookie year. Similarly, "KEEPER" means the player is one year further along and costs $15. Once the commissioner notifies me about the status of any dropped players I will update this accordingly. A dropped player is free to be bid upon during the auction.
* TINSTAAPP *
2008 - Wade Davis (P - TB)
2009 - Pedro Alvarez (3B - PIT)
2010 - Carlos Santana (C - CLE)
Team Los Del Rio
2008 - Travis Snider (OF - TOR) (DROPPED)
2009 - Neftali Feliz (P - TEX)
2010 - Dustin Ackley - (2B/OF - SEA)
Makyuu no Shoutai
2008 - Nick Adenhart (P- LAA) (DECEASED)
2009 - Cameron Maybin (OF - FLA) (DROPPED)
2010 - Desmond Jennings (OF - TB)
Red Hook Misdemeanors
2008 - Fernando Martinez (OF - NYM)
2009 - Lars Anderson (1B - BOS)
2010 - Jesus Montero (C - NYY)
Madison Mohels
2008 - Rick Porcello (P - DET) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Jason Heyward (OF - ATL)
2010 - Austin Jackson (OF - DET)
Smooth Segues
2008 - Jacob McGee (P - TB)
2009 - Derek Holland (P - TEX)
2010 - Buster Posey (C - SF)
Replacement Levelers
2008 - Mike Moustakas (SS - KC)
2009 - Gordon Beckham (3B - CHW) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2010 - Mike Stanton (OF - FLA)
Boston Doodles of Cambridge
2008 - Matt Wieters (C - BAL) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Tommy Hanson (P - ATL) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2010 - Aroldis Chapman (P - CIN)
Ong Rising
2008 - Clayton Kershaw (P - LAD) (KEEPER IN 2010)
2009 - Madison Bumgarner (P - SF)
2010 - Brian Matusz (P - BAL)
PECOTA Monkeys
2008 - David Price (P - TB) (PROMOTED IN 2010)
2009 - Colby Rasmus (OF - STL) (DROPPED)
2010 - Stephen Strasburg (P - WAS) (CY YOUNG AWARD WINNER 2010 - 2023)
3.14.2010
2010 Minor League Draft
(1) David - Stephen Strasburg (SP-WAS)
(2) Jimmy - Brian Matusz (SP-BAL)
(3) Ryan - Aroldis Chapman (SP-CIN)
(4) Richard - Mike Stanton (OF-FLA)
(5) Dan - Buster Posey (C-SF)
(6) Mike - Austin Jackson (OF- DET)
(7) Brandon- Jesus Montero (C-NYY)
(8) Justin- Desmond Jennings (OF-TB)
(9) Paul - Dustin Ackley - (2B/OF-SEA)
(10) Matt - Carlos Santana (C-CLE)
(2) Jimmy - Brian Matusz (SP-BAL)
(3) Ryan - Aroldis Chapman (SP-CIN)
(4) Richard - Mike Stanton (OF-FLA)
(5) Dan - Buster Posey (C-SF)
(6) Mike - Austin Jackson (OF- DET)
(7) Brandon- Jesus Montero (C-NYY)
(8) Justin- Desmond Jennings (OF-TB)
(9) Paul - Dustin Ackley - (2B/OF-SEA)
(10) Matt - Carlos Santana (C-CLE)
12.18.2009
2009 in Review (Part II)
Some teams surely set themselves up for success or failure based on the draft, but an enduring question of fantasy baseball is how much the final outcome depends on selecting the right players at the start versus in-season moves to bolster a roster. Since we already looked at which teams had the players that ‘outperformed’ or ‘underperformed’ the most, I thought it might be interest to look at which teams had the biggest discrepancy between the actual performance of their drafted players and the total stats of final roster.
If there were no bench slots, no free agent pick-ups and no trades, then the draft would be the only thing that mattered. The decisive winner of the Best Draft Award goes to the Madison Mohels (see Table 3). As discussed in Part I, the Mohels pursued a strategy of placing huge dollars with hitters and then only 20% of the budget to pitching. Since Roy Oswalt ($23) and Justin Verlander ($10) consumed most of that small pitching budget, the rest of the pen consisted of low cost starters under 30 years old who showed prior flashes of skill, including Jered Weaver ($5), Joe Saunders ($2), and Bronson Arroyo ($2). Adding to the pen were good rate-stat relievers Huston Street ($1) and Brandon Lyon ($1). To round things out, Chris Capuano ($1) and Bartolo Colon ($1) were thrown in to the mix. It is unclear if those were serious picks or part of the screwed up end-of-draft problems we experience in 2009 thanks to ESPN. I have doubts as Capuano never pitched that season due to injury and Colon is just really, really fat.
The low cost pitching strategy for the Mohels worked quite nicely, at least in comparison to everyone else. For a grand total of $19, the Mohels got 66 wins (see Table 4) from Weaver, Saunders, Arroyo and Verlander, which contributed to 8 points in that category. Only Owalt truly disappointed. And the rate stats followed as well (7 points for ERA, 9 points for WHIP, 6 points for K/BB). What was saved on pitching provided a wide margin of error for the hitters.
In 2009, only 54 players hit 20 or more home runs. Of those, nine went undrafted in our league. Yet, who among us regrets not drafting the 20-HR power of Shin-Shoo Chin? Those kinds of surprises are fairly common in baseball. However, if there was a pro rata distribution of power hitters on teams, everyone would have four, perhaps five, 20 HR hitters. The Mohels had eight players who combined for 246 HRs. That alone would have been good for 2nd place in HRs, except he had an additional five guys who added 74 HRs to that total. Runs and RBIs tend to go along with homers, and thus the Models soundly took 10 points in each category, with upper tier finishes in OBP and SBs. This was not a result of high risk bets, rather it was the intentional assembly of a murders row that consisted of Miguel Cabrera ($40), Jimmy Rollins ($28), Ryan Howard ($22), Carlos Lee ($27). Sure, the team received great, inexpensive performances by Mark Reynolds ($3 for 40 HRs) and Robinson Cano ($7 for 25 HRs at second base), but the hitting categories were won even without them.
Following the prior post, Dave commented that “If I had put a little more in-season elbow grease into it, I suspect I could have escaped the cellar into the low middle rangers.” Perhaps. Except, his drafted team was a full 10 points behind the Red Hook Misdemeanors. Dave’s team simply stunk like, well, Monkeys. With a couple of exceptions, every hitter and pitcher seemed to put up a disappointing, but not disastrous performance. Grady Sizemore ($37), Chase Utley ($29), Carlos Quentin ($15), Stephen Drew ($11), Matt Garza ($11) and Scott Kazmir ($10) simply each had a down year. This must be how Omar Minaya feels every year.
Looking through the entirety of the as-drafted standings, what is clear is how much working the waiver wire can help. As we explored earlier, * TINSTAAPP * seemed to have a team that was in the lower-half according to PECOTA. In fact, the drafted team would have only provided an 8th place finish. Nonetheless, * TINSTAAPP * managed to nab just the right players, but no one that stands out. With the exclusion of the recruitment of Kendry Morales (34 HR, 108 RBI), the roster seems to be nicely fitted with all sorts of role players who hit less than 20 HRs or won less than 15 games. The transaction counter may provide a clue, as Matt add/dropped 48 players, which was fairly typical for our league. Instead, he made an amazing 170 activations, versus a league average of only 127. Importantly, the winner of the activations contest, which suggests playing daily matchups, was 2nd place finisher Team Los Del Rio with 325 start/bench moves. This also reveals that the deserved receipient of the The Faith In My Drafted Team Award should go to Jimmy, since Ong Rising made only three start/bench moves all season. Removing the extemes of Team Los Del Rio and the Ong Rising from the totals leaves a league average around 115 activations. Second place in this category belonged to Smooth Segues, but they finished in 6th in the standings versus an as-drafted finish of 5th, so perhaps there is a limit to what that method can achieve.
Let me conclude by awarding one more prize. Maykuu no Shoutai were projected to finished 3rd based on the PECOTA projections. My team as-drafted team would have finished in 3rd place. And in fact, I took home the bronze. Thus, I believe I deserve the Atlanta Braves Award for consistency that never leads to a championship.
If there were no bench slots, no free agent pick-ups and no trades, then the draft would be the only thing that mattered. The decisive winner of the Best Draft Award goes to the Madison Mohels (see Table 3). As discussed in Part I, the Mohels pursued a strategy of placing huge dollars with hitters and then only 20% of the budget to pitching. Since Roy Oswalt ($23) and Justin Verlander ($10) consumed most of that small pitching budget, the rest of the pen consisted of low cost starters under 30 years old who showed prior flashes of skill, including Jered Weaver ($5), Joe Saunders ($2), and Bronson Arroyo ($2). Adding to the pen were good rate-stat relievers Huston Street ($1) and Brandon Lyon ($1). To round things out, Chris Capuano ($1) and Bartolo Colon ($1) were thrown in to the mix. It is unclear if those were serious picks or part of the screwed up end-of-draft problems we experience in 2009 thanks to ESPN. I have doubts as Capuano never pitched that season due to injury and Colon is just really, really fat.
The low cost pitching strategy for the Mohels worked quite nicely, at least in comparison to everyone else. For a grand total of $19, the Mohels got 66 wins (see Table 4) from Weaver, Saunders, Arroyo and Verlander, which contributed to 8 points in that category. Only Owalt truly disappointed. And the rate stats followed as well (7 points for ERA, 9 points for WHIP, 6 points for K/BB). What was saved on pitching provided a wide margin of error for the hitters.
In 2009, only 54 players hit 20 or more home runs. Of those, nine went undrafted in our league. Yet, who among us regrets not drafting the 20-HR power of Shin-Shoo Chin? Those kinds of surprises are fairly common in baseball. However, if there was a pro rata distribution of power hitters on teams, everyone would have four, perhaps five, 20 HR hitters. The Mohels had eight players who combined for 246 HRs. That alone would have been good for 2nd place in HRs, except he had an additional five guys who added 74 HRs to that total. Runs and RBIs tend to go along with homers, and thus the Models soundly took 10 points in each category, with upper tier finishes in OBP and SBs. This was not a result of high risk bets, rather it was the intentional assembly of a murders row that consisted of Miguel Cabrera ($40), Jimmy Rollins ($28), Ryan Howard ($22), Carlos Lee ($27). Sure, the team received great, inexpensive performances by Mark Reynolds ($3 for 40 HRs) and Robinson Cano ($7 for 25 HRs at second base), but the hitting categories were won even without them.
Following the prior post, Dave commented that “If I had put a little more in-season elbow grease into it, I suspect I could have escaped the cellar into the low middle rangers.” Perhaps. Except, his drafted team was a full 10 points behind the Red Hook Misdemeanors. Dave’s team simply stunk like, well, Monkeys. With a couple of exceptions, every hitter and pitcher seemed to put up a disappointing, but not disastrous performance. Grady Sizemore ($37), Chase Utley ($29), Carlos Quentin ($15), Stephen Drew ($11), Matt Garza ($11) and Scott Kazmir ($10) simply each had a down year. This must be how Omar Minaya feels every year.
Looking through the entirety of the as-drafted standings, what is clear is how much working the waiver wire can help. As we explored earlier, * TINSTAAPP * seemed to have a team that was in the lower-half according to PECOTA. In fact, the drafted team would have only provided an 8th place finish. Nonetheless, * TINSTAAPP * managed to nab just the right players, but no one that stands out. With the exclusion of the recruitment of Kendry Morales (34 HR, 108 RBI), the roster seems to be nicely fitted with all sorts of role players who hit less than 20 HRs or won less than 15 games. The transaction counter may provide a clue, as Matt add/dropped 48 players, which was fairly typical for our league. Instead, he made an amazing 170 activations, versus a league average of only 127. Importantly, the winner of the activations contest, which suggests playing daily matchups, was 2nd place finisher Team Los Del Rio with 325 start/bench moves. This also reveals that the deserved receipient of the The Faith In My Drafted Team Award should go to Jimmy, since Ong Rising made only three start/bench moves all season. Removing the extemes of Team Los Del Rio and the Ong Rising from the totals leaves a league average around 115 activations. Second place in this category belonged to Smooth Segues, but they finished in 6th in the standings versus an as-drafted finish of 5th, so perhaps there is a limit to what that method can achieve.
Let me conclude by awarding one more prize. Maykuu no Shoutai were projected to finished 3rd based on the PECOTA projections. My team as-drafted team would have finished in 3rd place. And in fact, I took home the bronze. Thus, I believe I deserve the Atlanta Braves Award for consistency that never leads to a championship.
12.01.2009
2009 in Review (Part I)
For the past couple of seasons, I've compiled data from the BPGPL into a spreadsheet with the hope of using it to reach conclusions after the season. Each April, I lay our draft data out to tap the Baseball Prospectus projections to plot the expected results for all teams. In the past, I've forgotten about it by the time November rolled around. This year, I thought I would swap out the BP projections for the actual 2009 season results on a player-by-player basis to explore a couple of questions that are at the heart of fantasy baseball: (1) whose team 'outperformed' the most and which team 'underperformed' the most versus BP projections; and (2) how much does a good draft predict a good finish versus the intra-season roster moves. I will put some of the summary data on the league spreadsheet for anyone interested.
First, let’s review whose core team exceeded projections and whose team underperformed. I compiled projections using the BP data back in April under the assumption that the starting roster for each team would be the most expensive players drafted for each position and that each player would sit there the entire year. This fails to account for players taken at 'steal' prices that allowed paying more for a backup or for players who are very careful about substituting players on off-days, but I needed a simple methodology.
Let’s see where BP was simply wrong. PECOTA is based on playing time projections that are impossible to get exactly right. While they can use playing time and injury history to predict the future, this fails to account for new injuries, managerial decisions and trades, which drag down the results for select players. For our entire league, I found an average underperformance of 11% below the runs projection and 8% below the RBI projection and 6% below the stolen base projection . This is a simple average, but these are not rate stats, so it is applicable. Home runs were 3% lower than forecast and OBP was in-line with the forecast.
Table 1 lays out the average over/under-performance for the batting statistics of each team in order of projected finish. Across the majors, offense registered similar levels to 2008, so MLB as a whole was consistent with their recent history in terms of runs and HRs. As might be suspected, there were unheralded players who likely picked up some of that ‘missing’ offense. There are some pretty clear trends, however, on who got 'lucky' or 'unlucky' (or alternatively who was 'smart' or 'dumb') in picking players that outperformed the PECOTA projections.
The projections from the outset of the season featured the Boston Doodles of Cambridge and the Replacement Levelers tying for first place. The forecast included the Doodles dominating the hitting categories with Albert Pujols, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez and a number of 20-HR players, while giving up on Ks and Ws in favor of control-oriented pitchers who could keep the rate stats (ERA, WHIP, K/BB) competitive. No credit was given to major league-ready prospect Matt Wieters on the minor league roster since the team also had a $14 catcher in Geovany Soto. The actual results were disappointing – 18% fewer runs and 20% fewer HRs. For a team built around winning hitting categories, this was a devastating turn of events.. Despite another great year by Pujols who justified his $40 price tag, each of the other starters on the field provided less offense than could be reasonably expected. Absolutely no baseball analysts were suggesting that Wright ($29) and Soto ($14) would each hit less than half as many HRs as they did the prior season. Sub-par performances were also provided by Jay Bruce ($15 for 22 HRs, 47 Rs and 58 RBIs) and BJ Upton ($15 for 79 Rs and a .313 OBP).
Meanwhile, the Replacement Levelers kept hitting underperformance within the averages of the rest of the league. The aim was clearly to dominate in stolen bases, which the Levelers handily achieved with the league lead. However, the Levelers were principally a pitching-oriented team (based on the PECOTA projections). We'll take a look at the impact of the Leveler's pitching disappointments shortly.
Before looking at negative cases, take a peak at the second place Team Los Del Rio who managed to dramatically outperform the forecast. Team LDR started the season at a major disadvantage since Paul took over as manager and had slim pickings for keepers other than a handsomely priced Roy Halladay ($20). The team was built on some fairly high priced players such as Mark Teixeira ($35), Kevin Youkilis for ($22), Ichiro Suzuki ($20) and Jason Bay ($20). The bets paid off with career years by Teixeira (39 HR / 122 RBI / 103 R), Youkilis (27 / 94 / 99) and Bay (36 / 119 / 103) with Suzuki ( 88 R / 26 SB / .386 OBP) performing exactly as advertised. Russell Martin ($17) performed below expectations in every category despite playing a full season, but still had a better season than most catchers. Garrett Atkins ($17) significantly disappointed, but the price reflects widespread belief in our league that he was poised for a rebound, but clearly not every gamble must pay off to be successful. The hidden value came in the form of Troy Tulowitzki ($8) who doubled his projection with 32 HR and Raul Ibanez ($10) who BP envisioned hitting 21 HRs, but actually hit 34.
Meanwhile, league winner * TINSTAAPP * had a more disappointing offensive performance by its drafted players across most categories than the league average. Nonetheless, the team placed in the top ranks of every offensive category. Here, it is very clear that what the base roster failed to offer, Matt went out and found in free agency.
On the other side of the field, the league average pitching statistics did not waiver nearly as much as the offense. These were each rate statistics, so it is more difficult to calculate the averages as clearly, but it appears that each stat was within a 4% band of expectations for the entire league, but the standard deviation was much larger among the individual teams.
As their name might suggest, * TINSTAAPP * did not aggressively pursue young pitchers. Instead, the team went after unheralded veterans including Jamie Shields ($20), Jon Lester ($12), Ervin Santana ($11), John Danks ($10), and Ryan Dempster ($5). Santana (5.03 ERA / 1.48 WHIP / 107 K) was somewhat disappointing, but Lester almost exactly balanced that out by performing above expectations (3.41 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 225 K). A look across the entire pitching staff reveals fewer than expected Wins, but a nice offset from higher than projected K/BB. Nonetheless, * TINSTAAPP * finished the season with the most points from pitching of any team. Similar to the team's offensive performance, the pitching stats imply shrewd use of free agency and the waiver wire.
The Replacement Levelers were expected to dominate all pitching categories with modest-priced pitchers including Brandon Webb ($23), Ricky Nolasco ($12), Chad Billingsley ($12), and Matt Cain ($9). Webb pitched all of four innings before his season ended with a shoulder injury, which can only be chalked up to bad luck. The abbreviated season of Chris Young ($3), a control pitcher who projected to pitch 140 innings with a sub-4.00, could not have helped either, as Young went down with a similar shoulder injury after just 76 innings. Meanwhile, Nolasco did not pitch like the #1 pitcher for a contender as he posted an ERA over 5.00. Further, Randy Johnson ($7) threw like a 45 year-old with under 100 innings and an ERA near 5.00. Cain's career year (2.89 ERA / 171 Ks / 14 Ws) was simply not enough. Taken the Levelers put 20% of their budget on four players who were far below the replacement level.
The pitching category suggests the difficulty of dealing with bad players when it comes to rate stats. Ong Rising sunk 40% of its budget into pitching, including Johan Santana ($30), C.C. Sabathia ($29), Chris Carpenter ($9), and Adam Wainwright ($8). Those four CY Young candidates each were expensive, yet performed at or better than expected. Add in a great year by Clayton Kershaw ($5), the youngest pitcher in baseball, and its a wonder that Ong Rising did not blow out the pitching category. It seems the drag of Kevin Slowey ($12), Brad Lidge ($4), and Fausto Carmona ($4), each of whom threw up horrible stats, was too much to bear, but its very difficult to drop pitchers who seem like they may turn it around after another start or two.
Circumspection of The Madison Mohels yields some interesting data. They put only 20% of their budget into pitching, with $33 of the $46 committed to Roy Oswalt ($23) and Justin Verlander ($10). I've always wondered if it would be possible to punt several categories entirely to ensure victory elsewhere. The Mohels hitting surely came through, but they were projected to be the worst pitching team, and they lived up to that billing. They stunk in pretty much every pitching category, except one, wins. Though I have not reviewed the roster additions and drops, this suggests a regular strategy of adding pitchers likely to win the next day's game, even if their rate stats could be poor. Combined with top stats in every hitting category, they achieved 5th place finish, which further suggests to me that our league may permit ignoring one category (SBs, Ks), but not several at once.
Lastly, let's review the worst of the worst -- PECOTA Monkeys. The team was projected by its namesake PECOTA to finish 8th in our league, but wound up in dead last by a wide margin. The team seems includes an all-star roster of every player that BP called out in print as a possible break-out all-star, but which PECOTA itself projected to be lackluster. The roster was stocked with crafty veterans who were supposed to have something left in the tank, such as Grady Siezemore ($37), Rafael Furcal ($13) and Carlos Delgado ($11) combined with up-and-comers including Stephen Drew ($13), Carlos Quentin ($15), Joba Chamberlin ($15), and Scott Kazmir ($15). Yet it would have been very easy to conclude that Dave's judgment was shot the second he bid $10 for Lastings Milledge.
This concludes Part I of the 2009 Review. This provided some insight into whose drafted players lived up to expectations and which team were bitten by bad luck. If I have time and there is interest, I will next take a look at the raw data of projections for the drafted team versus where each team finished to see if we can find any info on who had the best post-draft.
First, let’s review whose core team exceeded projections and whose team underperformed. I compiled projections using the BP data back in April under the assumption that the starting roster for each team would be the most expensive players drafted for each position and that each player would sit there the entire year. This fails to account for players taken at 'steal' prices that allowed paying more for a backup or for players who are very careful about substituting players on off-days, but I needed a simple methodology.
Let’s see where BP was simply wrong. PECOTA is based on playing time projections that are impossible to get exactly right. While they can use playing time and injury history to predict the future, this fails to account for new injuries, managerial decisions and trades, which drag down the results for select players. For our entire league, I found an average underperformance of 11% below the runs projection and 8% below the RBI projection and 6% below the stolen base projection . This is a simple average, but these are not rate stats, so it is applicable. Home runs were 3% lower than forecast and OBP was in-line with the forecast.
Table 1 lays out the average over/under-performance for the batting statistics of each team in order of projected finish. Across the majors, offense registered similar levels to 2008, so MLB as a whole was consistent with their recent history in terms of runs and HRs. As might be suspected, there were unheralded players who likely picked up some of that ‘missing’ offense. There are some pretty clear trends, however, on who got 'lucky' or 'unlucky' (or alternatively who was 'smart' or 'dumb') in picking players that outperformed the PECOTA projections.
The projections from the outset of the season featured the Boston Doodles of Cambridge and the Replacement Levelers tying for first place. The forecast included the Doodles dominating the hitting categories with Albert Pujols, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez and a number of 20-HR players, while giving up on Ks and Ws in favor of control-oriented pitchers who could keep the rate stats (ERA, WHIP, K/BB) competitive. No credit was given to major league-ready prospect Matt Wieters on the minor league roster since the team also had a $14 catcher in Geovany Soto. The actual results were disappointing – 18% fewer runs and 20% fewer HRs. For a team built around winning hitting categories, this was a devastating turn of events.. Despite another great year by Pujols who justified his $40 price tag, each of the other starters on the field provided less offense than could be reasonably expected. Absolutely no baseball analysts were suggesting that Wright ($29) and Soto ($14) would each hit less than half as many HRs as they did the prior season. Sub-par performances were also provided by Jay Bruce ($15 for 22 HRs, 47 Rs and 58 RBIs) and BJ Upton ($15 for 79 Rs and a .313 OBP).
Meanwhile, the Replacement Levelers kept hitting underperformance within the averages of the rest of the league. The aim was clearly to dominate in stolen bases, which the Levelers handily achieved with the league lead. However, the Levelers were principally a pitching-oriented team (based on the PECOTA projections). We'll take a look at the impact of the Leveler's pitching disappointments shortly.
Before looking at negative cases, take a peak at the second place Team Los Del Rio who managed to dramatically outperform the forecast. Team LDR started the season at a major disadvantage since Paul took over as manager and had slim pickings for keepers other than a handsomely priced Roy Halladay ($20). The team was built on some fairly high priced players such as Mark Teixeira ($35), Kevin Youkilis for ($22), Ichiro Suzuki ($20) and Jason Bay ($20). The bets paid off with career years by Teixeira (39 HR / 122 RBI / 103 R), Youkilis (27 / 94 / 99) and Bay (36 / 119 / 103) with Suzuki ( 88 R / 26 SB / .386 OBP) performing exactly as advertised. Russell Martin ($17) performed below expectations in every category despite playing a full season, but still had a better season than most catchers. Garrett Atkins ($17) significantly disappointed, but the price reflects widespread belief in our league that he was poised for a rebound, but clearly not every gamble must pay off to be successful. The hidden value came in the form of Troy Tulowitzki ($8) who doubled his projection with 32 HR and Raul Ibanez ($10) who BP envisioned hitting 21 HRs, but actually hit 34.
Meanwhile, league winner * TINSTAAPP * had a more disappointing offensive performance by its drafted players across most categories than the league average. Nonetheless, the team placed in the top ranks of every offensive category. Here, it is very clear that what the base roster failed to offer, Matt went out and found in free agency.
On the other side of the field, the league average pitching statistics did not waiver nearly as much as the offense. These were each rate statistics, so it is more difficult to calculate the averages as clearly, but it appears that each stat was within a 4% band of expectations for the entire league, but the standard deviation was much larger among the individual teams.
As their name might suggest, * TINSTAAPP * did not aggressively pursue young pitchers. Instead, the team went after unheralded veterans including Jamie Shields ($20), Jon Lester ($12), Ervin Santana ($11), John Danks ($10), and Ryan Dempster ($5). Santana (5.03 ERA / 1.48 WHIP / 107 K) was somewhat disappointing, but Lester almost exactly balanced that out by performing above expectations (3.41 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 225 K). A look across the entire pitching staff reveals fewer than expected Wins, but a nice offset from higher than projected K/BB. Nonetheless, * TINSTAAPP * finished the season with the most points from pitching of any team. Similar to the team's offensive performance, the pitching stats imply shrewd use of free agency and the waiver wire.
The Replacement Levelers were expected to dominate all pitching categories with modest-priced pitchers including Brandon Webb ($23), Ricky Nolasco ($12), Chad Billingsley ($12), and Matt Cain ($9). Webb pitched all of four innings before his season ended with a shoulder injury, which can only be chalked up to bad luck. The abbreviated season of Chris Young ($3), a control pitcher who projected to pitch 140 innings with a sub-4.00, could not have helped either, as Young went down with a similar shoulder injury after just 76 innings. Meanwhile, Nolasco did not pitch like the #1 pitcher for a contender as he posted an ERA over 5.00. Further, Randy Johnson ($7) threw like a 45 year-old with under 100 innings and an ERA near 5.00. Cain's career year (2.89 ERA / 171 Ks / 14 Ws) was simply not enough. Taken the Levelers put 20% of their budget on four players who were far below the replacement level.
The pitching category suggests the difficulty of dealing with bad players when it comes to rate stats. Ong Rising sunk 40% of its budget into pitching, including Johan Santana ($30), C.C. Sabathia ($29), Chris Carpenter ($9), and Adam Wainwright ($8). Those four CY Young candidates each were expensive, yet performed at or better than expected. Add in a great year by Clayton Kershaw ($5), the youngest pitcher in baseball, and its a wonder that Ong Rising did not blow out the pitching category. It seems the drag of Kevin Slowey ($12), Brad Lidge ($4), and Fausto Carmona ($4), each of whom threw up horrible stats, was too much to bear, but its very difficult to drop pitchers who seem like they may turn it around after another start or two.
Circumspection of The Madison Mohels yields some interesting data. They put only 20% of their budget into pitching, with $33 of the $46 committed to Roy Oswalt ($23) and Justin Verlander ($10). I've always wondered if it would be possible to punt several categories entirely to ensure victory elsewhere. The Mohels hitting surely came through, but they were projected to be the worst pitching team, and they lived up to that billing. They stunk in pretty much every pitching category, except one, wins. Though I have not reviewed the roster additions and drops, this suggests a regular strategy of adding pitchers likely to win the next day's game, even if their rate stats could be poor. Combined with top stats in every hitting category, they achieved 5th place finish, which further suggests to me that our league may permit ignoring one category (SBs, Ks), but not several at once.
Lastly, let's review the worst of the worst -- PECOTA Monkeys. The team was projected by its namesake PECOTA to finish 8th in our league, but wound up in dead last by a wide margin. The team seems includes an all-star roster of every player that BP called out in print as a possible break-out all-star, but which PECOTA itself projected to be lackluster. The roster was stocked with crafty veterans who were supposed to have something left in the tank, such as Grady Siezemore ($37), Rafael Furcal ($13) and Carlos Delgado ($11) combined with up-and-comers including Stephen Drew ($13), Carlos Quentin ($15), Joba Chamberlin ($15), and Scott Kazmir ($15). Yet it would have been very easy to conclude that Dave's judgment was shot the second he bid $10 for Lastings Milledge.
This concludes Part I of the 2009 Review. This provided some insight into whose drafted players lived up to expectations and which team were bitten by bad luck. If I have time and there is interest, I will next take a look at the raw data of projections for the drafted team versus where each team finished to see if we can find any info on who had the best post-draft.
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